Customs Union or European Association?
This political theme has lately become the most common and the most discussing, perhaps the most important. Each has its own opinion and the approach on this issue based on its outlook and the limits of its susceptibility. So, where Armenia is standing and where it has directed its political views. While the answer to this question will become known, it is possible to realistically analyze the geopolitical situation – the U.S., Europe, and Russia conflict.
And here, it becomes clear that we are tied to Armenia – Russia old-aged friendship by geographic location, too, by economic development programs, by people-focused and good hopes for the future. With proper orientation, we would also avoid the early century history, not becoming a playing card in the hands of superpowers. Thus, affiliating to the Customs Union, Armenia receives a military – political guarantees and a number of economic advantages, such as, for example, it might be the import of oil products to Armenia in 2015. The customs-free import of oil is already a supplement to the budget of Armenia. One more fact. The gas imported from Russia is the cheapest in the European market (it’s another matter at what cost it reaches to the Armenian consumer). In the Customs Union membership, Armenia shall be exempt from the payment of import duty, particularly for the Russian gas – at 140 million U.S. dollars per year. Russia is the only country, which can supply energy to Armenia. (Armenia’s geographic location does not allow being an energy-carrier from other countries).
Today, Armenian-Russian commodity turnover is 20 percent, while in the event of the Customs Union, it may reach three-fold – 60%, as well as strengthening the trade and economic cooperation between the two countries. It is known that the Armenian diaspora is huge, and Armenians are all over the world, nevertheless, it is also noteworthy that 80 percent of bank transfers in Armenia is coming from Russia. This important information similarly records two significant facts. First, the majority of Armenians residing in Russia are not emigrants, but those who have left for temporary migrant work. Secondly, the Russian government has defined a number of preferential conditions for the RA citizens, starting from facilitation of registration up to acquisition of the right to employment. Thus, in the last two or three years, in the framework of a number of employment programs developed by the Russian government, 45 000 Armenians have found job in Russia. Eleven schools are opened in Central Russia funded by the state. 500 000 people per year leave and arrive in Russia.
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With regard to accession to the Customs Union, a remarkable research is presented by the Director of the Center for the Eurasian Development Bank, Evgeny Vinokurov, saying that around 67 percent of Armenians supports and only 5 percent is radically against the Customs Union. “This is a very high and suitable figure for support for making serious political decisions. Preliminary calculations indicate that in the two-year term, in case of affiliation to the Customs Union, Armenia’s GDP may grow more than four percent.”
Raisa GRIGORYAN
We are ready to present other observations