In our country, as soon as the price of the dollar goes up or down, people immediately get confused. This 2 days, the dollar has depreciated by about 10 drams, 1 dollar has become 468-469 drams from 476-478. Especially, the citizens whose savings and deposits are in dollars are in a panic. They have a fear that as the price for dollar rapidly went up in December last year, it will go down, hence, many people hurry to convert their reserved dollar into drams.
The economist Vilen Khachatryan, in an interview with Aravot, assured, “There is no issue of panic, if not the dollar is converted into drams, maybe later they will regret.” Regarding the depreciation of the dollar, the economist expressed an opinion that although some changes are taking place in the global economy, however, we should not think that difficult situation will arise in Armenia, and there is no need to artificially create such situations. The low level of the dollar rate, as noted by the economist, is driven by both domestic and external factors. Domestic factors that can affect the appreciation of the dram are quite a few, and therefore, the main factor is related to the external factor. “One of the factors is that the China Central Bank has lowered the interest rates of almost all reserves, increasing the amount of money.
The other factor is the policy of the US Federal Reserve, according to which, they seem to refuse to raise the interest rates in the near future, in other words, they step back from raising the dollar for some time because of the elections in the United States in 2016, after which they will go for drastic steps. The 3rd factor is that in 2015, there was 745 million dollars less import in Armenia than during the previous year. This means that this much less money went out from Armenia. And if 745 million dollars less money outflow from Armenia, it means there is a situation that a dollar surplus has occurred in the economy, but the Central Bank reserves at the moment are 1 billion 625 million dollars, and if we consider this one too, the reserves in our economy are not so much and have a tendency to decline. A dram depreciation takes place. This means that the dollar should increase in our economy, but it does not. We are not low on the dollar as a result of fewer imports. In other words, if the imports were left on the same level as last year, at present, we would have less than 1 billion in reserves, which would have further jeopardized our economy.”
As economist Vilen Khachatryan says, the export has remained at the same level, i.e., due to the export, the dollar has come to Armenia, but the remittances have been decreased. “And all these factors have affected the dollar depreciation. China, with its policy, has created such a situation for developing countries, some grounds for depreciation of the dollar because if we compare the reserves of this year and the last year, China has injected about 500 billion dollars into the economy, which also has its impact.”
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Mr. Khachatryan said that now the situation is as such that the dollar depreciation is also due to the euro factor. The President of the European Central Bank announced that they are increasing the amount of euro in the economy, after which the markets responded, “We notice that the euro is depreciating too, this also contributes to the depreciation of the dollar.” As for Armenia, according to the economist, it is not the case that so much dollar has entered into our economy causing depreciation, and it is not also the case that the Central Bank of Armenia is artificially depreciating. “The Central Bank runs a restrictive monetary policy.”
The economist said that Armenia is low on the dollar, which later should leave its impact. Vilen Khachatryan expressed an opinion that the dollar will go up. “Even if the rates of import are restored, the dollar will go down and we would have, so to speak, a dollar crisis”. The economist reminded last December when people were in a panic because of the dollar increases. “The population always suffers the most from these speculative games. Look at the events of last December and be sure, and those who sat quietly were in the more favorable situation.”
Nelly BABAYAN
“Aravot” daily
