The Prime Minister of RA announces: yes, Armenia has got nothing from the membership of EAEU. And here several questions arise. On Saturday while answering to the questions of journalists Karen Karapestyan confessed that Armenia had not benefited anything from becoming a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. On the other hand the Prime Minister emphasizes that, there is no any analysis what would had happened if “we did not enter the Union in that critical situation regarding the market on which we are working”. “Imagine that we were in the market of the EAEU and our merchandise mainly was directed to those markets, and what would have happened if we were not an EAEU member.
We do not have that analysis. Secondly, by being in the EAEU market, do we exclude working in other markets? No. We have great potential of attracting other markets, and does the EAEU hinder us in any way? Of course, no! And consequently, can we benefit from the EAEU membership? It mainly depends on us. If we do not benefit from it that much, I think, it is not correct to lay the blame on others. “not necessarily should we be against someone, if we are friends with someone else, aren’t we? And friendship with others is not excluded, right?” said Karen Karapetyan. What comes out? What crisis was it, “a critical situation” when Armenia had no way out but to enter that union? Let’s refresh our memory. Since 2010 the EU started negotiations on Association agreement with four out of six countries of EU Eastern partnership including Armenia, and excluding Azerbaijan and Belarus. Moreover, it was talked about strengthening of economic relations without any prospect of EU membership, and by taking into consideration that the West and Russia had also entered into the course of political convergence, the Russian Federation and the USA had pushed the red button of “uploads”, the Russian aggression against Georgia was considered as a failed “incident” and was sunk into oblivion.
And in summer of 2013 it was announced that the negotiations were over, the treaties were agreed on, it was about to be signed or to be pre-signed in cases of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, and Armenia was ready for that. Let’s recall also, that since the spring of 2013 Russia started openly threatening Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and especially Ukraine. Let’s recall also that it was followed by the disgrace of September 3, and almost three months later the Ukrainian maidan broke out, which was followed by the illegal annexation of Crimea to Russia, unleashing of the full-scale war in Donbas, the direct invasion of the Russian troops in Eastern Ukraine, the sanctions against Russia and the rapid decline of the Russian economy parallel to the decline of oil prices. Prime Minister Karen Karapetyan says that there is “no an analysis” on what would had happened if we had not entered the EAEU in that case. There is no need of a deep “analysis” to comprehend that the Russians would have turned Armenia into a second Donbas without any hesitation. The higher representative of the Russian embassy was promising a “social explosion” in October, Dugin-Glazyev- Kurginyan-Mihranyan circle along with other “experts close to the Kremlin” unanimously were promising the loss of Artsakh. Thus, by watching the chronology of the Russian political mutation, without a need of “an analysis”, it is enough to understand what our “centuries-old friend” was planning. It is a separate topic of discussion why Armenia could not refuse the “indecent proposal” of Russia, when deliberately that resource was just wasted in the decade of Robert Kocharyan, when the gas pipe coming from Iran “became thin”, when from 2010 to 2013 the RA authorities did nothing to adjust the political and economic system to the transitional period to the maximum, which, definitely, could not be easy, when the super-oligarchs “were making declaration of love” to the “Putin” ideas on the Russian mass media in 2012, whereas on the same mass media the Prime Minister of that time was substantiating why Armenia should not become a member of that so-called EAEU (yet, it is he that nowadays holds a high position in the EAEU), etc. And now the Prime Minister of RA says that the membership to the EAEU is a “necessity” for Armenia. Surely, by position Kren Karapetyan was not a participant of those political decisions of the past but he has inherited the whole burden of that. And the logic of political team requires from the Prime Minister not to break the team “boundaries” and try avoiding diplomatically those “underwater stones”. And in any case, it is noteworthy that Karen Karapetyan declares that the EAEU does not hinder us, “not necessarily should we be against someone, if we are friends with someone else, aren’t we? And friendship with others is not excluded?”.
How much it hinders will be obvious in the coming months, when we see whether we would have a new agreement with the EU, we would have a new agreement with the USA, Armenia would become a transit country for the Iranian hydrocarbons, Armenia would become a bridge between Persian Gulf and Black Sea turning from a “lumber room” into a corridor. However, taking into account that for the world the Russian authorities have turned from political issue into a criminal-political issue and have reached the “door” of the International Criminal Court, and being in the same room with Putin and the “guys” from his circle is a big impact on the good political reputation, then it is difficult to imagine that the Russians would display understanding to the approach that “not necessarily should we be against someone, if we are friends with someone else, aren’t we?”. And as for the say that “friendship with others is not excluded”… On October 23 marked the 60th anniversary of the Hungarian revolt. Sixty years ago the Hungarians were fed up with the kolkhoz-sovkhoz socialistic innovations that the Soviet occupant had brought with them and went out on a peaceful strike. However, the peaceful strike was shot. At that time the frenzied crowd hanged the local communists and tchekists from the pillars, after which on the background of the silence of the West the Soviet tanks literally drowned the rebellion in blood. Twelve years later the Czechs and the Slovaks also revolted and the communists of Czechoslovakia just offered “socialism with human face”, and were saying almost the same “not necessarily should we be against someone, if we are friends with someone else, aren’t we?”, “friendship with others is not excluded”, etc. It was not about coming out from any soviet alliance but just “a human face”.
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After that Alexander Dubcek was called to Moscow and was informed that he had to recieve “a long treatment” in one of the governmental country houses of Moscow area, and the Soviet tanks reached Prague. Certainly, the world has changed since that but the “Golden Horde” reflexes of the Kremlin have not changed. According to George Kennan, up to now the neighbors of Russia can be either an enemy of Moscow or a vassal. And hoping that Moscow will allow “not to exclude friendship with others” for nothing is highly risky. However, let’s not forget that “kolkhoz-sovkhoz- stalin- lenin –city committee- central committee- tchekist ” anti- civilization garbage vanished in Eastern Europe within several months from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, Germany was disoccupied and reunited, Armenia and the Soviet republics became independent, when that fallacious system collapsed from the inside, from the inner absurd burden. And now, it is the same as it was at the end of the 1980ss, when everyone saw and felt that the system was dying but nobody spoke out, it was “inappropriate”… And only those who were maximum ready at “X time” benefited. That new “X time” is approaching, the second phase of the Russian empire collapse is approaching.
Communism has been subjected to mutation, according to the description of Vaclav Havel; it has turned into mafia-controlled state, which is not less inhuman and ridiculous than communism was. And ”after Putin” it will be a completely different situation, for which we should get ready from now. Silently, that is the number one issue of today’s government, authorities, opposition, society, during the solution of which as Karen Karapetyan says ”I think it is not correct to lay the blame on others”.
RUBEN MEHRABYAN
”Aravot”
