The
report of the experts in the Security Council at the RA President in January 1998.Still
in January 1998, a month before the changeover of political powers the experts
prepared a report on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict called "Five alternatives
for the Armenian part" for the sitting of the Security Council at the RA
President. The version "To frozen the current situation and to wait for a
better moment" was also discussed among the versions included in the document.
As the RA current authorities have chosen just this version that’s interesting
to compare the predictions in the document with the reality. In this connection
in case of delaying the solution of the issue "Azerbaijan will continue and
intensify its diplomatic war preparing for military activities at the same time.
In case of economic development Azerbaijan will surpass Armenia the tendencies
of which is already exist." Russia "can consider that the settlement
of the conflict coincides with its interests in general" but on another hand
" it may also decide that delaying the settlement of the conflict is profitable
otherwise it will loose the lever of influence in the region" or " the
peace will increase the Western in particular the U.S. influence in the region,"-
the experts predicted in January 1998. As regards Turkey and Iran then the
first will keep closing its borders and the second "will keep condemning
this situation as the aggression of Armenia but the continuation of this situation
is profitable for Iran. Georgia will keep staying nervous and suspicious and will
continue deepening the economical and political cooperation with Azerbaijan, which
will mean the isolation of Armenia in the region and regressing economically,
that is will carry out the policy of Azerbaijan." The experts had predicted
in the document that the U.S. pressures on Armenia would increase. "In time,
in case of absence of any solution and progress the U.S. will reduce its direct
assistance and its positive position in World Bank system in giving assistance
to Armenia. The U.S. will deepen and rouse the propaganda against international
credit of Armenia. It is more probable that it will add proposals making to choose
something." As regards the European Union it has said clearly "it will
reduce its assistance if the problem isn’t solved and in case of lack of any prospect
of regional development,"- it is said in the document. In general it
was predicted in 1998 that "the OSCE will continue the pressures with two
directions beside the pressures of Minsk group. It will put pressures for adopting
the principal of territorial integrity" during annual meetings and will try
to isolate Armenia. According to that report the UN Security Council "may
adopt a new resolution by proposals of the OSCE cochairmen. The possibility of
the UN SC interference will increase in course of time,"- the experts mention.The
positive side of delaying the settlement in the document is that we will temporize
to put in order our economy, to multiply the foreign investments as much as it
will be possible to neutralize the economical domination of Azerbaijan got by
oil. "For this version to become a factor we must manage not only replace
the reducing assistance for closing the direct deficit but to close the additional
expenses, to record positive progress in social sphere. Anyway the strategic importance
of oil investments and interests will remain predominant,"- the experts write.
It is also mentioned that this version is the best as it gives the opportunity
to the RA and NK rulers not to be declared as traitors not giving any solution.
But the "problem will be solved sooner or later with our participation or
without,"- the experts consider. Will our levers increase or reduce in comparison
with Azerbaijan? Or will the interests of the interested countries be changed
or remain the same and in case of changing will it be in favor of us or the opposite,
– the experts ask. But the most important according to the document is the "economical
factor as in case of this version the blockades will be kept that means Armenia
won’t have the opportunity of normal economical development and will regress both
from Azerbaijan and Georgia."Naira Mamikonian
