What
will happen in 2008 and after?There is a known expression:
prediction is an ungrateful deed. It is completely true in case of Armenia. But
for not the reason that the danger of being wrong is great. But just the opposite
there is no danger at all. Then for whom must we tell about what everyone knows
beforehand? Do we need in high knowledge to predict what Arshak Sadoyan and Paruir
Hayrikian will declare in the press interview tomorrow? It is obvious that they’ll
say almost the same what they have said for 17 years. But there aren’t other speakers
and won’t be if it continues in this way.The matter is that people don’t want
to hear the same expressions for the thousand times. People want to live well.
And by simple calculation it can be proved that it won’t happen. Let’s admit that
the budget of a middle /not progressive/ European country is 8 milliard Dollars
/ and the number of population is like ours/ and the budget of Armenia is 800
million. So we will reach to the present standards of the European country just
in 100 years in case of 10% annual economic growth declared officially. But those
countries we want to look like will also develop and the chasm which disjoint
us from the developed countries will not be the same but bigger. If it continues
in this way.At the first half of the 19th century a French statesman Alexis
Tokvil noticed that the market economy usually gives the following political result:
the standard of living will be grown and the population which was satisfied by
few things will demand more and more. The economy of Armenia can’t be non-market,
you won’t forbid the TV set, which shows the life of prosperous countries, and
you won’t close the Internet. And even any RA citizen form his conception exclusively
on the optimistic information of "Haylur" and don’t watch any other
TV channel and program he will watch in the bloc of international news fragments
from other life, from the life by which live 20-30 wealthy people of Armenia close
to the authority. The comparison of "this" and "that" lives
will keep integrating our people. If it continues in this way.It is interesting
who will invest in the small, poor and disorderly country. And also in the country
that has problems with its neighbors. The capital runs away from such places however
they have liberal tax code. Only three countries of the South Caucasus together
cab perform any interest for the great world capital. We don’t perform a market
for them by our poverty and problems. And it concerns equally to Georgia and Azerbaijan.
The USA can feed Georgia for political proposes for a while. But it is finally
an illusion. The material interest lies on the base of real development; you won’t
become a European country by a sponsor or grants. Azerbaijan also can think that
the oil will bring the country to the prosperity. But it is also an illusion.
The oil will bring prosperity only to Aliev’s family. And Armenia will live without
illusions of developing economically and without any hope. If it continues in
this way.Other kind of illusions will rise and develop. "National".
If you can’t give a deserving life to a person then you must feed him by tales.
We’ll take our historical lands back from the Turks and Karabakh will join to
Armenia. Perhaps Shvartzeneger will help; he will wear Terminator’s cloths and
will kill the soldiers of the enemy. Though the streets of Yerevan are dirtier
and darker than the streets of Helsinki but instead our capital is older with
43 years than Rome. And the whole humanity originates from the Armenians. We’ll
continue to be fed by those meaningless legends. If it continues in this way.And
the last prediction. Serge Sargsian will be proclaimed as the RA President in
2008. Those who say that Serge Sargsian won’t be the President that he’ll fail
in this time, that people or the CoE won’t allow, they give themselves caurage.
Just the same they were saying in 2003. The opposition will hold some meetings
in 2008, the CoE, OSCE and the U.S. State department will declare that the elections
don’t satisfy the requirements of democracy, the CIC observers will say that the
elections were fair and the Constitutional Court will affirm it. Then the authority
will propagandize that those who contest the results of the elections are traitors,
they pour water on the Azerbaijan’s mill and take the dirty laundry to Strasbourg.
All these are so similar and trivial that it isn’t worth to predict, just in the
same way the day is changed at the night and the winter by the autumn. The only
exotic color in the elections in 2008 is that Tigran Karapetovich will fill the
second place. He will gather the most votes / which shows the high intellectual
way of thinking of our voters/ but he won’t be allowed to become the President.
Certainly if everything continues in this way.Aram Abrahamian
