An imitation of negotiations

  We will witness this phenomenon in Kazan too

 On June 25 a trilateral meeting of the presidents of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan will take place in Kazan, the capital of the Republic of Tatarstan of Russia. They suppose that the heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan will agree on the final version of the Madrid Basic Principles during the meeting. In any case, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group and particularly Frenchman Bernard Fassier hope for that. Before that on June 11, ministers of foreign affairs of the two countries Edward Nalbandian and Elmar Mamedyarov had a business meeting in Moscow, certainly, with the participation of Minister of Foreign Affairs of the RF Sergey Lavrov. According to the message spread by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the RA, “they succeeded to approach the positions on a set of main issues of the Basic Principles of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement during the discussion. The draft of the mentioned document will be discussed at another bilateral summit at the end of June.” However, neither Armenian, nor Azerbaijani analysts are so optimistic as Bernard Fassier and official Baku. Moreover, both in Yerevan and Baku ideas are voiced that another fruitless meeting is going to take place in Kazan and what is more, no final agreement will be reached on the Basic Principles. Certain Armenian and Azerbaijani political scientists do not also rule out that no document might be signed in Kazan. Azerbaijani political scientist, head of the Center for Studies of Critical Situations Zardusht Alizadeh with whom “Aravot” had a talk expressed the same idea. He is also more than convinced that the sides would not reach an agreement on the Madrid Basic Principles for quite a long time. “Basically, what people need is not the endlessly passing of the ball, but the settlement of the conflict and peaceful and secure life and that will not be. A method will be chosen for the conflict settlement; it will be discussed for years, it will be the continuation of the process of those initiatives that has lasted for 20 years. That is all. Nothing is expected from this meeting. The Madrid Principles are laid on the table, which are thought to be secret, but everybody knows everything. Thus, according to the Madrid Principles, the reoccupation, adaptation to the territories surrounding NK, the return of the refugees, the basing of the peacekeeping forces, the opening of the borders, the exploitation of the means of communication and the financial cooperation should take place. Armenia only has to clarify on the terms of the referendum and the definition of the issue put on a referendum. Azerbaijan says Karabakh is not going to be independent, we will not allow an Armenian state to be established on the Azerbaijani territory. The Armenians say Karabakh will never be an Azerbaijani territory. What can be done under these conditions? One can imitate that he makes efforts to resolve the issue and continue negotiations with pleasure”, ironized the political scientist.

They speculate in Yerevan that a document like Meiendorf, Astrakhan or Sochi declarations may be signed in Kazan. Meanwhile Z. Alizadeh does not expect that either, “Armenia wants Azerbaijan to undertake an obligation not to use force, and Azerbaijan wants Armenia to undertake an obligation to take its military forces out of the Azerbaijani territories. What do you think how is it possible to combine those two demands. If Armenia does not agree to take its military forces out of those territories, continues to bomb the territory of Azerbaijan from the de-jure Azerbaijani territories what can Azerbaijan do; either start an undeclared war or imitate that it is preparing for war, certainly not warring. Azerbaijan has chosen the second option, it imitates that it is preparing for war, but it will not war. And it does not war, because it is dangerous for the authority and the authority is money, is a good thing. Ask Serzhik Sargsyan about it. How many people did he kill for the authority? The same thing is in our country”, noted Z. Alizadeh. In that case, what reasons for optimism do not only official Baku, but also French co-chair Bernard Fassier who was convinced that the sides could agree on the settlement principles and sign a final agreement on those in Kazan have? “The final agreement is ruled out. Look at the promises made by the presidents of the two countries; those are mutually deniable and extremely contradictive. Serzh says Karabakh will never be a part of Azerbaijan, Ilham says Karabakh will only be Azerbaijani.” A basis for an agreement can be respect for human rights, security of the citizens and democracy, however that is contraindicative for our countries”, argued the political analyst.

As for the international community and the Minsk Group co-chairs, the Azerbaijani analyst is convinced “the international community does not really care for either the Karabakh issue or the Armenians or the Azerbaijanis.” “The international community has its own problems and interests. Oil, gas, political games, that is what they care for and they care little for how the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis live”, stated Z. Alizadeh adding that the NK issue would not be resolved for a very long time.