The RF lost its influence

According to head of the European Studies Center of the YSU, Doctor of Law Artur Ghazinyan, the status-quo in the Karabakh conflict is going to change and the issue will be solved under the auspices of the European Union

 –       Lately the process to settle the conflict has become more intense, particularly the joint statement of the Minsk Group co-chair state presidents made in Deauville, the visit of the co-chairs afterwards, the positive signals coming from Armenia, Karabakh and Azerbaijan seem to testify to the fact that the signing of the basic principles in Kazan becomes more realistic. What can be expected from this process?

–       You have described the recent activity of the negotiation dynamics quite right; the rising pressure to end the negotiations on the basic principles and initiate the elaboration of the big peace treaty on the conflicting sides can also be added to that. In my opinion, the year 2011 is going to be turning for the NK conflict settlement, however, in my opinion having too much expectations from the Kazan meeting is not realistic, despite Russia will put any effort to achieve that. The issue here is not the existence of the sides’ political will to go for decisive moves or otherwise, but the fruitfulness of the intermediary mission that is being conducted. Is Russia capable to lead this process, does it have the necessary system of values and ideological devotion for that? Russia does quite well in the scope of the peace-forcing mission, yet in the case of the NK conflict, the peace forcing is not relevant, it presupposes a peaceful negotiation process based on tolerance with full reaffirmation and respect for the principles of equality of states and sovereignty.

Here is where the main problems arise, since I am strongly convinced that Russia does not have as much influence and authority in South Caucasus any more as it had before the Russian-Georgian five-day war. Russia’s every unsuccessful attempt to reach the conflict settlement within the scope of its intermediary mission decreases its involvement in South Caucasus, that will eventually lead to the change of the status-quo in the region.

–       You mentioned that the year 2011 will be turning for the NK conflict, yet you do not believe in the progress expected from the meeting in Kazan. Where and by whose mediation you think this issue can be solved?

–       The meeting in Kazan probably will be the last one by the mediation of Russia and in case of failure the status-quo in the region will change for the benefit of the European Union. The EU has already stated its intention to participate in the conflict settlement process of the Eastern Partnership in the region, particularly in the work of the OSCE Minsk Group. I think that the EU will be more actively involved in the NK conflict settlement process during elaboration of the big peace treaty; it might even lead that process.

The EU has pursued a balanced policy in the region for the past 20 years, it has not treated the region states discriminately, has been one of the biggest, if not the biggest, donor of the financial support. At the end of the day, the EU unlike other geopolitical centers is really interested in the vision of the peaceful and stable South Caucasus.