If only Russia does not impede

According to a Georgian analyst, Georgia must change its strategy toward South Ossetia

Three countries of the South Caucasian region have unsettled conflicts on their territories; Georgia is involved in the Abkhazian and South Ossetian, and Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Karabakh conflict. And however different these conflicts are, nevertheless in the context of their settlement the similarity of some steps can be the clue to the resolution of the problems. When yesterday “Aravot” was talking to the head of International Center on Conflict and Negotiation, Georgian political scientist and analyst Georgi Khutsishvili, we tried to find out whether Abkhazia and South Ossetia that had been recognized by Russia and some unknown states are lost territories for Georgia from then on.
According to Khutsishvili, at this moment probably yes, but Georgia must do everything to establish relations with its neighbors, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia. “They systematically ask, maybe it will make sense that Georgia recognizes the independence of Abkhazia, in order to get back Gali region in return. In my opinion, it is not realistic and it cannot take place, because the Abkhazians do not agree to that themselves, Georgia does not agree either. As to South Ossetia, in this context they also say that this region is a heavy burden to Russia. Russia invests huge amounts of money in South Ossetia, but as a result those “are eaten”, because the corruption level is high there, the leadership of that region does not think of creating something like a state, but of filling their own pockets. I.e. a state is not being built in South Ossetia. In Abkhazia a real state is being built, therefore, there are speculations that Russia may give up and say take this South Ossetia, because we do not need it any more. It will not happen”, said Khutsishvili, explaining that it will not only be a huge negative precedent for Russia, but also is of strategic significance. South Ossetia is a big tool in the hands of Russia for putting pressure on Georgia, “because the Russian bases in Akhalkovi are only 40 km away from the capital of Georgia. And Russia, certainly, will not give up this kind of pressure leverage.” Nevertheless, according to the analyst, now Georgia must revise its state strategy toward those regions, “Our task must be not isolating Abkhazia and South Ossetia or making Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Russia with the assistance of the international community integrate those regions into the Georgian territory that is impossible, but, considering the current situation, to try to create relations with Abkhazians and South Ossetians; to create an atmosphere of trust, to restore economic relations and freeze touching upon the status issue of those regions. We must not talk about the status issue of those regions, because they have their notion about their status, we have ours. However, we must trade with each other, communicate, and try to even reach the opening of the borders. If one pursues the right policy, I think it is possible. And only afterwards, in the future can it lead to establishing some new, other relations that may have prospects. However, generally I think that one has little time left to do that, because time is against Georgia; a generation is growing that does not remember our common past, thus there is no nostalgia in that generation.”
Let us remind that in the framework of the agreement reached by the presidents of Russia and France after the Russo-Georgian five-day war, as early as on October 15 discussions started in Geneva on the ways of ensuring the security and stability in the region, the refugees and displaced, the post-conflict situation, in which the representatives of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Russia, Georgia, the USA, the EU, the OSCE and the UN have been participating.  And the offers that Mr. Khutsishvili meant the Georgian delegation have already presented in the framework of the Genevan discussions, but the RF resists to that. According to the analyst, Russia will not give up that attitude in the short run, but if as a result of the historical developments, following the elections other leaders are elected in Georgia and Russia who, as Medvedev put it, will at least shake hands with each other and will not be restricted with some obligations and the policy already pursued, then some step forward might be observed. “It is a very hard and long process and one must be ready for that. In order to restore those relations one generation will not be enough, but I never rule out that some changes will take place. Everything is in the hands of man”, finished Georgi Khutsishvili.