Will Kocharyan be more active?

Political scientist Andranik Tevanyan does not rule it out

After Russian Prime Minister Putin’s nomination for president became known, the Armenian mass media were the first to raise the issue of former president Robert Kocharyan’s nomination for the upcoming election in Armenia. The representatives of the establishment rushed to state that the candidate of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) is Serzh Sargsyan and that Putin’s nomination has nothing to do with Kocharyan’s nomination and cannot influence the Armenian political developments, and the oppositionists stated that Kocharyan failed all 8 years of his presidency with “October 27” and “March 1” events and has neither trust, nor favor to return.
Head of “Politekonomia” research center Andranik Tevanyan thinks otherwise. According to him, given the current political situation in Armenia all political forces and personalities can express their disapproval and return to politics. If former president Levon Ter-Petrossian who compromised himself in 1990s was able to return, then, according to Tevanyan, everyone can. In response to Aravot’s question whether it is possible in practice that Kocharyan may return considering the disapproval of him among members of the society Tevanyan stated, “Certainly, not only Kocharyan, but also those who care for the security problems facing Armenia have a chance to return. They couldn’t have become active, if the Armenian establishment had pursued normal economic, foreign and domestic policies.” According to him, it doesn’t matter who will be active, “the important thing is that the political line will change.”
Talking about the impact of Putin’s return on the developments in Armenia, the political scientist said that the impact could be both direct and indirect, from personal relationship to political factor. He particularly stressed the political factor, considering the quality of the relations between Russia and Armenia. “One may not either say that it will have a decisive impact or will have no impact. However, the political developments in Armenia are mostly in the hands of the Armenian citizens. I think those developments will depend on the achievements of the present’s establishment, but the establishment has failed both in foreign and domestic policies and the society will make a decision considering those factors. The parliamentary election will show what developments there will be, particularly considering the fact that the titular opposition led by Levon Ter-Petrossian has failed too”, stated Tevanyan, enumerating Levon Ter-Petrossian’s failures: the municipality election in 2008; the so-called “dialogue”. “Given these facts there is a big vacuum in the current political situation in Armenia and a demand for an alternative and a change in the policymaking. Only time will tell who will be its pioneer.” The current establishment will not only have problems, because it failed to establish normal relations with Putin’s Russia, but also it has a lack of legitimacy and public trust. The West supports it as soon as it is ready to solve the problems of the Armenian-Turkish relations and “make quick compromises” in the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, “We know that Putin’s entourage did not accept him and if they accepted him, only on the ceremonial level. Medvedev’s policy resembles to some extent Serzh Sargsyan’s policy, considering the fact that they tried to find support “overseas”, expecting particularly the West’s assistance in the inner-establishment struggle. S. Sargsyan has been making moves against the Russian interests; take the “football diplomacy” supported by Medvedev. Medvedev wanted to create an image of a quick solver of the NK issue and tried to strengthen his positions through the external factor. I.e. Medvedev’s and Sargsyan’s political vectors were the same, regarding the internal political developments, but those were not in the best interest of Armenia. Now when Medvedev leaves the arena, the West’s support for Sargsyan is “satisfactory” and one may say that Sargsyan has lost Russia’s “foreign” support. Add to this that S. Sargsyan has had a lack of legitimacy from the very beginning of his presidency, and it turns out that now he holds the power only inactively, and at least the indirect guarantor of his authority is Ter-Petrossian who does not go for intensifying the situation and becomes the actual guarantor of stability, as he has done since February-March. These two failed forces will try to support each other. I don’t rule out that the dialogue imitation may resume, but it is not essential any longer; actually there is a political vacuum in Armenia, in which Russia’s change is also a catalyzer, but I think our problems will eventually be solved in Armenia and external factors will only be additional elements.”
Is it possible that Ter-Petrossian, along with his ANC becomes that supporter of Serzh Sargsyan’s administration? “I think Ter-Petrossian already performs to some extent the function of a support at the moment. It is a different matter that it is not yet visible for the grassroots, but it will be visible in the run-up to the elections. Ter-Petrossian will lead, according to the concept “it is better to support S. Sargsyan”, but it depends mostly on R. Kocharyan’s involvement in the political processes or what political formats there will be during the elections. However, it is obvious the political vector must change in Armenia mostly in terms of foreign and domestic policies. The force that will do that is unknown yet and that’s why I am talking about the political vacuum. Who goes for that will take on the leadership in Armenia and naturally will change the political vector. During Serzh Sargsyan’s presidency economic and foreign policies and the national security of our country have been threatened and Ter-Petrossian actually supported it. The street is still at the service of the ANC, but I don’t think that the Freedom Square should be turned into a center of bargaining about the Armenian security issues. S. Sargsyan has no foreign support and he pins his hopes on his interlocutor in the “dialogue”, but his misfortune is that the formal supporters of the ANC chant “Serzhik, go away”. I.e. even if they enter into a political marriage, it will be doomed from the beginning and the results of that will make the couple less resistant, and we will have a more disgusting process, than we saw in the case of Artur Baghdasaryan and Artashes Geghamyan, because the latter took the way of “serving” without 10 dead and many injured and arrested.”