Everybody expects new inner coalition developments
The political forces of Armenia are facing a new divide: either to go to the right, or to the left; either to stay in the center, or to move. These are questions arising before every election and that find a final solution at the threshold of the election.
There is much time left before the election and the political scene is not that complex; there is a ruling coalition with three well-known forces, there is the Armenian National Congress (ANC) with a few forces in it, there is Dashnaktsutyun and the Heritage Party, and there are multiple small forces that will be used on demand. It is obvious that none of the political forces will discover a new planet for itself. Despite their ideological viewpoints, the political forces will always go either to the right, where they will find “our people”, or to the left, where there are also “our people”; well, as for the people who remain in the center, it is more than obvious. It is doubtless that rearrangements on the political scene are unavoidable at the threshold of the election. It is not ruled out that one or two new alliances will be created before the parliamentary election that will try to directly or indirectly get the votes of the part of the opposition that supports neither ANC, nor Dashnaktsutyun, nor else the Heritage Party. Alliances and unions supporting the Republican Party will also be created, as it happened before all the elections. Basically the rearrangements on the political scene will not be unexpected; for example, is it a secret for anybody that the National Democratic Union (NDU), along with Arshak Sadoyan, Shavarsh Kocharyan, Khosrov Harutyunyan, Artashes Mamikonovich and many other NGOs, hawks and falcons will support and guarantee votes for the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA). This is a serious amount and however opposition the opposition electorate is, there are bigger forces that will stand by the authority side. The tensions among the ruling coalition have become really tangible during last week. Last Friday the domestic political issues, including RPA-Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) present and future relations, were discussed at the General Council of the Republican Party. This was followed by many analyses and predictions about the possible and impossible versions, some even suggested that the Republican Party strictly ordered the Prosperous Armenia to make a decision; otherwise they would make a decision in their stead. These suggestions are denied jointly by both RPA and PAP representatives. One thing is clear, however, the Prosperous Armenia Party is not an abstract party; there are concrete people here with concrete businesses and connections and for the majority of those people the nightmare scenario will be, if Gagik Tsarukyan decides to turn PAP into opposition. Armenian businessmen (with one exception) don’t imagine themselves in the opposition camp. Such a thing happened in the past; do you remember what happened with the Rule of Law Party (RLP)? This time it is good that no PAP member states that “Prosperous Armenia” is written on his forehead. Therefore, the “analyses” on the issue that PAP will become opposition are not that serious, as no political force, enjoying the fruits of authority, hasn’t got enough willpower to turn into real opposition. Is it necessary to remind you about Dashnaktsutyun, however opposition they may speak now, nevertheless, it is clear, isn’t it, that they are not the one? It is beyond doubt that bad blood may brew between RPA and PAP. The reason is second president Robert Kocharyan and if he really wants to return, PAP must support him, nobody thinks otherwise, nevertheless, it is not ruled that businessman Gagik Tsarukyan who seemed to “drop out” of the second president long ago, makes a decision by himself to stay by his coalition partner’s side and put his words into effect in the spirit of the memorandum he signed with his own hand. If PAP do not do that, it is very important for the Republican Party to take the leverage, i.e. four portfolios and numerous other ministerial offices and advantages, away from PAP as soon as possible. The sooner RPA do it, the better. If RPA doesn’t bang its fist on the table and doesn’t have its say, the upcoming battle will be given on the very first days of November, when Tigran Sargsyan’s Cabinet will put forward at the permanent committees of the parliament the budget draft of the upcoming year. All the forces, parts of the coalition should support the budget, as they share the responsibility, PAP 35% of the responsibility, for the budget. Can you imagine what will happen, if the one of the forces, parts of the coalition starts to make opposition statements and suddenly decides to discuss that same budget? In that case, RPA will be required great effort to save the budget and guarantee “yea” votes. On the other hand, if PAP has been expelled from the coalition before that, everything will advance more smoothly, as, even without PAP, RPA is self-sufficient.