“The regime is in despair. Feeling the irresistible force of the national movement the establishment makes its last efforts to retain the illegitimate power, shifting the members of its team.” I would make such a comment, if I was a supporter of the opposition. “Under the conditions of unavoidable economic growth and large-scale reforms the government is facing new problems and challenges and under those conditions the most efficient model of governing is selected.” The supporter of the authority having certain education qualification would probably assess the staff changes this way.
Both explanations are certainly false because of their “orientation”, however they include a grain of rationality. The reality is that the authority and the opposition political forces are preparing for the elections. Furthermore, in case of the latest resignation of the National Assembly Speaker it was explicitly said. Given the fact that it is the official explanation, is it worth to make the same conclusion, as a result of analyses at the expense of deep and supreme efforts? As the main authority resource for participating in the elections is the administrative leverage, it is obvious that Hovik Abrahamyan himself must mobilize and organize that resource. On the other hand, combining the office of the second-in-command in the state with the Chief of Staff wouldn’t have looked good, and if the National Assembly Speaker hadn’t resigned the protests concerning such combining would have been quite natural. In that regard, I would certainly like David Harutyunyan to be the National Assembly Speaker, but the parliamentary majority probably have their own candidate, more adequate for them.
Another two assumptions that cannot be logically examined – as if Robert Kocharyan’s conspiracy is prevented by staff changes. It is groundless not because the second president is not capable of conspiracy – he is not only capable of conspiracy, but also that was the only way he came and just theoretically can come to power again. It is just illogic to assume that Hovik Abrahamyan can participate in such a conspiracy – a dubious person is not appointed the Chief of Staff of the ruling party. The second assumption is that the present Chief of Police will take stricter measures, than his predecessor, in case of national uprising. However, the violence used against the opposition is not conditional on the personality of the Chief of Police. Hayk Harutyunyan, for example, would have never made such a move, if he hadn’t been ordered by his superior. In the case of police everything depends on who orders.
ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
