At last we have got good news. The end of the world predicted for the next year and talked about as irreversible for centuries by Mayas, is postponed for a year. According to tert.am, such a consoling prediction was made by astrologist-esotericist Gurgen Hovhannisyan. According to him, political uprisings are expected on August 15 and natural disasters on November 23.
As I am not one of those chosen who can perceive the esoteric knowledge, I don’t pin my hopes on the disposition of planets or the remaining of coffee on the bottom of a cup, but I try to make my predictions based on the existing facts and their dynamics. E.g. if a football team is ranked 8th in some country’s premier league, then 10th and afterwards 13th, the probability that it will drop out of the league the next season and move to the second league is high. That prediction may certainly not be the case, but we, non-esotericists have no other mechanisms for prediction.
Using this method, let us predict what economic future awaits Armenia. According to the Ministry of Finance of the Republicof Armenia, direct foreign investments in the Armenian economy were $925.2 million in 2008, $732.1 million in 2009 and $482.9 million in 2010. One can easily calculate, given the data of the National Statistical Service – from October 2010 (when “we had already overcome the crisis with dignity”) to October 2011 beef prices increased by 18.9%, cheese prices by 19.6%, butter prices by 22.2%, olive oil prices by 19.2%, egg prices by 13.9% and sugar prices by 40.9% on average. According to the data of the same service, the number of the poor in Armeniawas 27.6% in 2008, 34.1% in 2009 and 35.8 in 2010. By the way, pay attention to the fact that according to our Cabinet, the poverty line in 2010 was 33517 AMD. I.e. the citizen who earns 35 thousand AMD per month is not poor anymore. It seems to me dubious to say the least, because I paid 75 thousand AMD for the gas in my house (for November) only yesterday. And the last number – according to www.cia.gov, total fertility rate inArmenia is 1.37 children born/woman. It is the worst rate in the region. The minimum rate necessary for the reproduction of the population is 2 children born/woman. According to the same source, the rate inTurkey andAzerbaijan is above 2 children born/woman.
In this case, I am not going to criticize or blame anyone. The Prime Minister and the ministers of the economic field think they work brilliantly and attribute everything to the global financial crisis. Let it be so. However, we regress substantially in this and a set of other fields. In such cases there are three options – either to say that those numbers are a lie, or to say why this tendency will not continue, or else to apologize and make way for a more competent Cabinet. The third option is the least probable. One should not be an esotericist to claim that either.
ARAMABRAHAMYAN
