Are those new attempts to ratify the Armenian-Turkish protocols?
Yesterday evening, it came out that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, arrived in Yerevan on a one-day visit, at the invitation of Serzh Sargsyan, the President of the Republic of Armenia. No information was given to the public on, so to say, informational reason for the visit. President Sargsyan’s invitation just followed the CSTO 20th anniversary events, official and unofficial meetings, agreements reached, documents signed there. The unexpected visit of the president of Iran also followed the passing of the bill banning the denial of the Genocide by the French National Assembly, the deepening of tension in French-Turkish-Azerbaijani relations in that regard, which in turn increases the geopolitical developments in the region. As a result, the Armenian president and the Iranian president spoke, along with multiple economic issues, also of peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, gave importance to non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, expressing loyalty to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, in a joint statement. Yesterday Aram Karapetyan, the leader of the New Times Party, referring to the meeting of two presidents, to the visible and, so to say, backstage aspects of its results during a conversation with “Aravot”, observed that according to the joint statement, in the visible part of the visit, Iran “offers money to Armenia”. I.e. the signed agreements testify that our neighbor intends to support and make investments in our country, certainly, providing a certain “climate”. The predicted increase of Iranian tourists, up to one million, is also in that context. As for the issue of nuclear weapons, our interlocutor is convinced that Iran takes any opportunity to assure the rest of the world that she is a country of a peaceful nuclear program, but they don’t believe Iran anyway, furthermore, they have serious doubts that Iran already has a nuclear weapon.
As for the most important, backstage part of the visit, Aram Karapetyan gives importance to several issues, “Iran wants to understand whether Armenia may be used as a base against her in any way in the short-run or not. Also, as Serzh Sargsyan has just come from the CSTO 20th anniversary events, Iran wants to indirectly understand the real longings of the Russian leadership.” In this context Aram Karapetyan also thinks the leak (17.12.2011, “Aravot”) published recently in “Nezavisimaya Gazeta”, according to which Georgia impedes the North-South bloc that includes the Russian Federation, Iran and Armenia, is interesting. Another issue that Iran cares for is, according to Aram Karapetyan, to what extent Armenia may be engaged in the American West-East project that includes Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and others, “The steps taken by France are interesting here. If they are carried through, are they a pressure on Turkey, so as she ratifies the Armenian-Turkish protocols? I.e. has a new game begun or are those the actions of France, given the human rights, domestic problems of France or trying to extend her influence over Armenia? If those are the latter, Iran doesn’t care for them, but perhaps all that is done by the US conduct and includes also opening the Turkish border. Turkey stabbed Iran in the back when she agreed to establish some elements of anti-missile defense system on her territory – Iran was against it. Iran also cares for what the Turkey-Georgia economic unity, which is very active and in which Armenia is integrating, is. I.e. on one hand, Armenia says that Iran is her friend, on the other hand, she takes steps that concern Iran. It is also important for Iran to understand whether the Armenian communities in Iran, Syria and Lebanon will remain loyal to the values so far upheld or will be used in internecine strife.” Our interlocutor assesses the Armenian policy positively in this regard. Our neighbor is also concerned about the possible military operations in the Karabakh front, which, in their opinion, may be provoked by both NATO and the Russian Federation, and the resolution passed by CSTO, according to which the third countries have no right to establish military bases.
It is interesting whether the Iranian president left Armenia pleased, whether he got answers to the questions he was concerned. According to Aram Karapetyan, no, “Ahmadinejad left unsatisfied not with the Armenian factor. The Armenian elite just lack the ability to get information, strategy, and analysis in that big game and give those to other countries. He left offended, because he cannot manage in any way to pursue a political course with Armenia that they will be able to use in common interest, as lobby. Iran can lobby Armenia in the Muslim world and Armenia can be that serious, political crossroads. No matter how much one explains, all the same our politicians say almonds are expensive in Iran.”
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NELLY GRIGORYAN
