It is obvious that political forces have started to prepare for the presidential election to take place next year from today and the allocation that is there in the parliament should be
perceived from that very perspective. First of all, about the possible coalitions. The worst scenario will be, if the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) joins the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) and the Rule of Law Party (RLP). It will be bad, because the parliament will continue playing the role of a hole punch and bills proposed by the Cabinet will not go through any “legislative examination.” Extreme stagnation will not do our country any good. It is not a bad scenario, if the PAP joins the Armenian National Congress (ANC) and endorses Levon Ter-Petrossian’s candidacy in the upcoming election. However, such a scenario is not very probable not so much because Gagik Tsarukyan and other PAP businessmen’s businesses will be under threat. However, in that case, the Congress will be compelled not to say anything bad about Robert Kocharyan and the latter must not criticize the first president and the years of his rule in the framework of that agreement. Although such a 180-degree turn is possible, but at the moment, it is hard to imagine. The optimal scenario is the following – the PAP doesn’t join anyone and acts independently from the position of constructive opposition. It tries to fix, normalize relations, if necessary, with the other three opposition parties and sometimes also tries to torpedo the bills proposed by the Cabinet. The more it is difficult for the Cabinet to work with the National Assembly, the higher the quality of laws will be. And the Prosperous Armenia Party will decide within a year which of the three presidents to endorse or perhaps to nominate Mr. Oskanian.
Not being a supporter of the Congress or any other political force, I am happy that the ANC has appeared in the parliament. Firstly, being an MP means different level of responsibility and seriousness. Secondly, I think it is important that Hrant Bagratyan will most probably become an MP, you will agree, if I say that criticizing the government during press conferences and from the National Assembly floor are different things. If the Cabinet takes an irrational step (which it has done many times for the past 4 years), Mr. Bagratyan, Ara Nranyan, Artsvik Minasyan, Vahe Hovhannisyan, the same Vartan Oskanian must show, within the limits of the parliamentarian correctness, the right way. Or they will convince the Cabinet. If it is not convinced, then the society will know the alternative positions and it will be a good pre-election propaganda before the upcoming presidential election.
The main challenges today are certainly socio-economic. The new parliament has much more capabilities here than the previous one.
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ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
