Political scientist Sahak Sahradyan expressed an idea talking about the fact of releasing and heroizing murderer Ramil Safarov during a conversation with www.aravot.am that the Aliyev clan used that episode for the reproduction of its own power. “We focus on the emotional side of the issue disregarding the political motives. For some reason, besides the emotional side, we don’t analyze, don’t talk about how it turned out that the Azerbaijani government took that step and what forces were behind it, which allowed it to cut such a deal. Those who cut such a deal couldn’t but understand that all this would evoke a serious international response. I would explain the Azerbaijani government’s motives with the disposition to the Aliyevs’ megaprojects – since the 2000s, when the oil prices started to go up, the Azerbaijani policy has been based on putting forward megaprojects to its people, its population. Among them was the creation of the biggest flag in the world, which, if you
remember, fell and say, the victory in the Eurovision Song Contest and releasing Safarov and having a military budget exceeding the Armenian state budget and say, installing Aliyev Senior statues in foreign countries like Venezuela and Mexico. All those megaprojects are links of a logical chain, which is based on distracting the Azerbaijani population from the problems inside the country, the most important thing is that one must explain to the Azerbaijani population why they live in poverty having plenty of hydrocarbon reserves – oil and natural gas. There is only one explanation for poverty – there is a hostile country, Armenia, which we can defeat only by having a big military budget, we have heroes whom we bring to the motherland by spending $2-3 billion, giving a bribe or cutting some illicit deals, release them, we must appear respectable and be famous around the world, for which we need to have a big flag, win Eurovision. So the low standard of living is legitimized,” the political scientist says.
As for what international forces and sponsors helped cut that deal, according to our interlocutor, in order to understand this, one should analyze on what foundation the Aliyev clan is built and what is the logic of its existence. “The intelligence services of the Western countries certainly couldn’t but know about the deal, since the preparation took a rather long period of time and such decisions are not made overnight. Azerbaijan’s place and role in the world is conditional on not only the amount of hydrocarbon reserves, but also the ethnic and religious composition of its population and its demographic characteristics. Azerbaijan is the third country around the world that has a majority Shia population. The Shias in Iran are the majority, they are in power, in Yemen, the Shias are the majority, but they are not in power, the power is in the hands of the Sunnis there, in Azerbaijan, the Shias are the majority, but since the state is established based mainly on principles of secularism, the influence of Iran is very limited. And limiting Iran’s influence is the main task of the West, particularly Israel, which is perceived as the main ally of the West in the Middle East. Thus, allowing Azerbaijan to take the path of Islamization means giving Iran a serious source of influence in the Caucasus region.
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“Let us not forget that Azerbaijan has an unsettled conflict with Armenia, it has a potential problem with Georgia – Marneuli District, which is populated with Azerbaijanis, may cause a conflict in the whole Transcaspian region, because the division of the Caspian Sea is not finished yet. The international status of the Caspian Sea is not clarified yet – the West tolerates the existence of the Aliyev clan only because the Aliyevs can nip in the bud any attempt of Islamization. Certainly, it would be more desirable for the West, if the Aliyevs were able to develop a modern state in compliance with the European standards, but since neither the Azerbaijani elite, nor the society are ready for it, the path of developing a nationalist state, a dictatorship is taken instead. For the existence and development of nationalism, one needs heroes and Azerbaijan suffers from a deficit of heroes as a defeated party in the war.”
According to our interlocutor, in this case, Safarov 100% corresponds to the image of a hero, because he is, using the Azerbaijani terms, from the occupied regions, secondly, he has killed
an Armenian and thirdly, bringing him to the motherland, Aliyev showed that any anti-Armenian deed is sponsored by the government.
“Certainly, this damages the international image of Azerbaijan. Naturally, Azerbaijan, as well as international power centers, couldn’t but understand this, but since it was done realizing all this, one should assume that it is very important to keep nationalist sentiment in Azerbaijan inflamed as a means of preventing the growth of Islamic sentiment. On the other hand, one should mention that releasing Safarov had an impact on Armenia’s international position and the negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh – the international position of our country was strengthened, because Armenia started to be in a more favorable position than Azerbaijan as a tolerant, democratic country more integrated in the Western values. I think that the appeals of those people who call for a new Nemesis or organizing a terrorist attack at the state level are very wrong.”
Here we have Israel’s example, which organizes terrorist attacks at the state level even beyond the country borders. There is a consensus regarding Israel as the only internationally recognized people, which underwent genocide – what Israel is allowed to do, no one else can, because a serious capital and lobbyist resources are in the hands of Israeli and Jewish organizations and those lobbyist resources have served and have been used to allow Israel to carry out terrorist attacks at the state level. I think Armenia doesn’t have such a resource and it will be very wrong to take Israel’s path. It will make Armenia closer not to Israel, but to Azerbaijan as a state sponsoring terrorism and carrying out terrorist attacks,” the political scientist thinks.
Sahak Sahradyan doesn’t blame the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for Safarov’s release at all, but he thinks that this ministry should intelligently use this incident to strengthen Armenia’s position in the negotiations. He thinks that Safarov will soon be forgotten in Azerbaijan, because he is a one-time hero.
Nune AREVSHATYAN
