Talking about the US-Turkey-Armenia relations and responding to a question whether Armenia had to show prudence with regard to the expected developments after the US election or not, Ara Papyan, a former Armenian Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Canada and the director of the Modus Vivendi center, said during a conversation with www.aravot.am: “I don’t think there will be any need for prudence, it is just that there will be some changes in the relations between America and Turkey, since Turkey gradually becomes more independent, willful, which isn’t in line with the traditional policy of America and it tries to gain new leverage or use the existing one to influence Turkey. Therefore, it is not a matter of prudence, but rather the fact that new opportunities may be offered to us; the Armenian, as well as the Kurdish, Question may be that leverage.”
Mr. Papyan stated with regard to the tensions in relations between the US and Turkey that one could notice it already, for example, in the relations between Turkey and Israel, or Turkey’s not giving a permission to use its territory to attack Iraq a few years ago. The tensions continue: “The problem is the following – there is a substantial change in Turkey’s
policy, i.e. the traditional, pro-Western direction gives way to the Eastern direction. So as it was in the Ottoman Empire, when there was a Sultan Caliph, Turkey attempts to restore its leading position now too. On the one hand, this offers Turkey opportunities, but on the other hand, it clashes with the West and starts to pose a threat, because more religious Turkey is not desirable for the West.”
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In response to a question whether the US would try to revive the Turkey-Armenia negotiation process or not, Ara Papyan said the following: “I think some steps will have been taken by 2015 not only by the US, but also by Turkey. Turkey will make some formal concessions, which are noticeable already, for example a church is being renovated in Diyarbakir etc., in order to prevent the condemning surge of public opinion, which is growing in the West. Turkey will do that, but I don’t think that reinstating those half-dead protocols is in our interest. I am sure that one should start new negotiations even mediated by the US on a new foundation and discuss a new range of issues.”
As for what attitude the US will take toward the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, Papyan thinks that everything will remain the same. First of all, in terms of the West’s interests, it is maintenance of peace in the region. And it is also in the interest of the US and the EU: “First of all, it is important that the South Caucasus doesn’t pose any serious threat, since it may spread. It is clear for everyone that the Karabakh war constitutes great danger of involving other countries.
“Secondly, it is the issue of fuel – oil and gas. Basically the current state of the Karabakh issue is in everybody’s interest, because they get what they want and the war will destroy oil and gas infrastructure, those huge investments that the West has made.”
Talking about Turkey’s policy of interfering in the developments in Syria, which aimed at expelling Armenians from the Middle East and responding to a question whether, at the end of the day, this “project” would be successful or not, Papyan said: “A policy of expelling Armenians is pursued, using the current situation. However, I don’t think that they will succeed in emptying Syria of Armenian Syrians, because a big part of those people just don’t have money to leave. However, the community will not be like before; it will shrink.”
Eva HAKOBYAN
