The Armenian National Congress (ANC) will not hold a rally, until its leader Levon Ter-Petrossian decides whether he will announce his candidacy or not. And the first president will not say that, until Gagik Tsarukyan says whether he himself will be nominated or will endorse someone else’s candidacy. The very fact that the actions of the ANC are conditional on the PAP actions, and the first president’s further actions depend on the PAP leader’s actions does neither the Congress nor its leader any good, to say the least. If one is an independent force and has its clear goals (let us conditionally call “getting rid of this regime as soon as possible” so, although there is a problem here too), one should offer the others to join him, not offer one’s services to the others, adapting to their agenda, which is not clear, but is surely not “getting rid of the regime.” Most probably, it is more beneficial for Levon Ter-Petrossian to make up his mind earlier, than Tsarukyan, otherwise every wasted day confirms the secondary, auxiliary and subordinate role of the Congress. If, nonetheless, after such a long pause, Ter-Petrossian decides not to announce his candidacy and to endorse someone else’s candidacy, it will cause serious rearrangements in the Congress, and that step will be welcomed only by those who are convinced that all ideas and actions of the first president and brilliant.
As for the PAP, as far as I can tell, three options are considered here: 1. Tsarukyan is nominated (it is the best option for the party, in my opinion); 2. The party endorses Serzh Sargsyan’s candidacy (it is less preferable, because in that case, the PAP will be compelled to give up on both Oskanian and many opposition formulas); 3. Not to announce or endorse anyone (I think this is the worst option, because it will cast doubt on the party’s viability).
Certainly, it is hard to predict how this intrigue will end, but the most probable and rational option is the following – both Ter-Petrossian and Tsarukyan are nominated, but they state that they will take joint actions in order to guarantee the fairness of the election, and this cooperation should be deeper and more comprehensive, than the “joint staff” coordinated by Hmayak Hovhannisyan.
I can predict one thing with 100-percent accuracy – regardless of how the election will be held and who will win it, the gang rule will not be destroyed and the regime will not change. However, it is a different subject.
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ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
