A ‘black cat’ has walked between Tbilisi and Baku. Although the discontent has not gone beyond expert evaluations, it seems that the initiatives of the new government cause serious irritations there. This is especially true regarding the idea of restoring the Russia-Georgia railway through Abkhazia and the diversification of the gas reception route for Georgia, which could mean the end of the dominant position of Azerbaijan’s Socar. Two members of the new cabinet– Reintegration Minister Paata Zakareishvili and Energy Minister Kakhi Kaladze, came up with these initiatives.
The pre-election promises of the winning government team contribute to this reviving of emotions. In the pre-election period, the Georgian Dream was accusing the then government about the occupied territories. It also criticized the high tariffs on gas and electricity. Attempts to fulfill the promises entailed a political scandal.
Several days after the appointment, Zakareishvili voiced the idea of restoring the railway corridor between Russia and Georgia via Abkhazia. According to the minister, the opening of the railway would contribute to the process of rapprochement of Georgia and Abkhazia.
The idea stated by the Georgian minister was followed by immediate reaction in Baku. Political scientist from Azerbaijan– Mubariz Ahmedoglu, is certain that Armenia will benefit most from opening the Abkhazian part of the railway line. “The Armenians will take an important part in the project, as they need the transportation of military and other cargo to Armenia,” he said.
Read also
Therefore, according to Ahmedoglu, this route has a greater geopolitical importance than it does economic. The political scientist says that if the anti-Azeri politics continue in Georgia, Baku will revise its position on Georgia’s territorial integrity.
The officials from Yerevan also responded to the idea of the Georgian minister. Prime Minister Tigran Sarksyan approved the desire to restore the railway line. “Railway transportation is cheaper than other routes. Thus, if it becomes operational, it will decrease the cost of transportation. Many sectors are interested in it. Their incomes will increase and Armenia’s economy will benefit from it,” Sarksyan said.
After the statement made by the Armenian Prime Minister, the issue of restoring the railway route became so sensitive for the Azerbaijani side, that the Zakareishvili had to release the tension in the existing confusion. He excluded the violation of the region’s status-quo for any specific benefit. “The mentioned restoration is only an idea, but it is excluded that Georgia takes any steps against the interests of Azerbaijan,” Zakareishvili said.
The desire to restore the railway corridor between Russia and Georgia via Abkhazia is not new. Talks between Tbilisi and Moscow on the issue started in 1999. It was one of the issues of the package of proposals along with the return of the IDPs on the territory of Abkhazia. In that period, the restoration of the railway was a priority for Moscow and the return of the IDPs was a priority for Georgia. The agreement could not be reached because of the disagreement about priorities and both issues remained open.
It is noteworthy that in 1999, the Azerbaijani government signed a declaration together with the European Union where Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia take responsibility for opening the railway. Georgian political scientist Gia Nodia could have meant this document when saying that the irritation of Azerbaijan was “exaggerated”.
“As for the discontent expressed by the Azerbaijani side, there may be a problem from their side, but I do not think this is very important and can harm our relations. Azerbaijan needs good relations with Georgia,” Nodia said.
The initiative of the Energy Minister on the diversification of gas transportation caused little reaction. However, the issue is of a much larger scale than it looks at first glance. Two weeks ago representatives of Kaztransgaz visited Georgia to discuss gas tariff reductions. During the meeting with the Georgian minister they discussed the issue of transporting Kazakh gas along with other issues.
Just a note: Russian Gazprom has full control over the natural gas of Central Asia. It buys gas at a minimal price from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan and sells it at 100 times the price to Europe. Importing Gazprom’s Asian gas was a topic of discussion at the minister’s cabinet and Baku expressed its protest about it. Today Georgia receives a large part of its natural gas from Azerbaijan; the gas transit quota for providing a corridor for the gas line to Armenia through Georgia is added to it.
If the Kazakh scheme is launched the necessity of importing Azerbaijani gas will be put under question– first in Tbilisi and then probably in other regions of Georgia. For example, it is hard to imagine that the main gas operator of Tbilisi – Kaztransgaz, replaces its own gas with the Azerbaijani gas. This is what the Kazakh guests explained to the Georgian minister– that only in the case of importing the Kazakh gas would tariffs would decrease.
It is not known yet when Kaladze will meet Gazprom representatives. However, one thing is clear: if negotiations with Gazprom are a success, it will stop the transit of natural gas via Georgian territory to Armenia (so that Georgia does not receive anything from it) and activate its Iran-Armenia pipeline in order not to leave its strategic ally (Armenia) without gas during the state of execution of Georgia.
Luckily, importing natural gas from Azerbaijan is “politically tied” to the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway line, in which Azerbaijan and Turkey have significant interests. Thus, we can hope that because of the pre-election promises, the Russian-Georgian deal will not take place and Georgia will not worsen its relations with Baku.
By Zaza Jgharkava
Georgia Today
