The decision made by the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) yesterday as a result of the PAP political council meeting caused some changes on the internal political stage of the Republic of Armenia. What impact will Gagik Tsarukyan’s decision not to nominate himself and not to endorse any political force have on the further steps to be taken by the ANC? Or will the PAP electorate be reoriented toward the ANC or another opposition force, or perhaps, it may not participate in the election? www.aravot.am got answers of some political scientists to these questions.
Political scientist Levon Shirinyan stated with regard to the questions we had asked that the ANC just had to avoid confusion and went into detail: “The PAP decision has paralyzed Armenian politics. It was not just an issue between the government and the opposition, it was an issue of entering into a normal process of political struggle. It is important here whether the opposition will be able to come around, not to be confused. Everyone understands that the PAP has a resource that no one else has, and before yesterday, Tsarukyan had been the favorite. It is a problem of the opposition leadership whether the ANC will be able to quickly make up its mind and unite the camp. Not everything is lost. The PAP electorate will turn to the place, where it will see an opposition. Skills become more important here so that they don’t hesitate, the government doesn’t confuse the people again. The ANC can gain a huge resource represented by the electorate, saying that they had warned the people that it would happen. One should give hope to the people, since those who wanted change are depressed.”
Armen Badalyan, an expert in political and electoral technologies, said: “Armenian society hasn’t been able to change its government through elections just once for the past 20 years. Therefore, if the government is not formed from inside, it is formed from outside. One of the three influential forces, the PAP, doesn’t participate in the election, the Republican Party will announce its candidate, there is only the ANC left. There is one nuance. It is one thing when you participate in the election just to participate, and it is another matter when you participate in the election to win. The ANC leader should be guided by that principle so that if he participates, he has to win. However, the problem is that the issue of who will be the president is not decided in the Republic of Armenia. If you want to win presidential elections, you must have tangible support of at least the Russian Federation or the West. That condition is not met in this case. Under such conditions, a question arises what the point in participating is, if you will become a detail of the incumbent president’s election campaign.”
As for the possible reorientation of the PAP electorate, Mr. Badalyan said: “There are people among them who consciously chose the PAP, and there are people who chose it because of financial interests. For this group, the stimulus is ten thousand drams. If they get them, they will follow the incumbent president. And the group that chose the PAP consciously may vote for the ANC, but that part is very small; it will not be a serious factor during the election campaign.”
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In conclusion, Mr. Badalyan said: “There is a demand from outside that there should be a competitive election campaign in the Republic of Armenia. However, if the PAP and the ANC don’t participate in the election, it turns out that the West wants a competitive election campaign, but it is not an election, it is an appointment, as I said before that the Armenian President would not be elected, he would be appointed using Western or Russian technologies.”
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
