According to Arif Yunusov, a famous Azeri political scientist, Ilham Aliyev will surely lose power; it is only a matter of time.
* Mr. Yunusov, why does Baku respond to reopening the Stepanakert airport so aggressively, if there is a line of communication between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh anyway? What is the problem?
* It is a law of conflict resolution; it is not that Azerbaijan is against communications between Yerevan and Stepanakert. The issue is different; let us call a spade a spade. If Azerbaijan allows aircrafts to land at that airport, tomorrow an issue of arrivals from other countries will be raised. Those will not be only aircrafts from Yerevan. Since Karabakh is not a subject of international law, aircrafts cannot land in or take off from it, given the international status. If Azerbaijan allows, it will de facto recognize Nagorno-Karabakh; this is the problem. It is the same as to ask why Azerbaijan demands that Western diplomats visit Karabakh, getting Azerbaijan’s permission. Certainly, one can say: “Let them visit, what is the problem?” But the same issue underlies this. Why has Georgia adopted the Occupation Act? We don’t have such a statute yet, but, by the way, it can be adopted; one should be ready for Azerbaijan’s adopting such a statute. So all this does not concern the relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but the law of conflict dominates here, i.e. if two people conflict, one of them should always look for a reason to create a worse situation for the other, and the other party should do that too. If there is no conflict, there will be no difference whether an aircraft lands or not, there will be technical issues, which will quickly be solved; it is about the Karabakh conflict settlement.
* However, now the issue of the Stepanakert airport has become an issue discussed within the scope of the Karabakh conflict settlement in the OSCE Minsk Group. So it turns out that new problems, which stalemate the negotiating process, arise.
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* The Minsk Group is an obstacle in itself, since, given the institution of co-chairs, if the two parties cannot agree or don’t want to agree, someone or a few of them emerge, and it is clear that they have their interests in the conflict. Let us consider the co-chair countries. Does Russia have its interests? Certainly, it does. Does France have interests? Certainly, it does. Does the United States have? It also has. So besides ostensibly trying to settle the conflict, they pursue their own interests in the region. That those interests don’t coincide also impedes the settlement, and we have witnessed that many times in the history of the settlement process. When one of the co-chair countries expects a rather active development, the other co-chair countries
don’t want that. I have always stated that I am against the institution of co-chairs. Negotiations will start when the Armenians and the Azeris start to talk to each other directly. When it is done through a certain party, both you and we try to influence Russia or the US. So, realizing that they have their roles and interests, we also start to act like that, which, in turn, causes a conflict of interest. And that the parties don’t talk to each other directly testifies to the fact that we don’t trust each other, i.e. we don’t really want to settle the conflict. When people in Azerbaijan and Armenia talk about compromise, ask what is compromise for the Armenians and what is compromise for the Azeris; to each of the parties, it is compromise in its favor. The issue of the airport is actually easy to solve, if there is mutual trust, and when there is no trust, there is fear; nothing succeeds.
* Mr. Yunusov, what is going on in Azerbaijan? It is known that there are protests, the government seems to be anxious, and there is great social discontent. Is that only social discontent, or is it also political discontent with the authorities?
* All that combined. There is social discontent in Azerbaijan, and it manifests itself in villages; a tide of discontent rose there because of permissiveness and corruption. And political discontent is related to elections, the Karabakh conflict etc. and manifests itself in Baku. It is all mixed up in our country. It is just that discontent with the government gradually grows in our country. Those are challenges; this is also called a challenge in conflict resolution, when something pressures society, society has to respond adequately, if it cannot, it will lose. If we consider the authorities in our country, then one is under the impression that they live in a glass palace, and they don’t always realize what is going on in society. Sometimes the authorities themselves cause problems, while one could solve those problems very easily. Sometimes I try to understand why they act like that in this or that case; then I realize that they don’t respond adequately to the situation, they don’t understand the situation correctly – people are discontent, there are social problems, low wages, an earthquake and a flood happened in our country, people suffer – but on the other hand, there is total permissiveness.
* So there is danger today that Ilham Aliyev will lose power?
* It depends on the period you mean. Ilham Aliyev will surely lose power; it is only a matter of time. The question is when. I don’t think that it may happen this year, but there is no doubt that he will lose power, and there will be an explosion in our country.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
Aravot Daily
