According to Uwe Halbach, an expert of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is “frozen.”
* Mr. Halbach, Serzh Sargsyan’s second term will officially start on April 9. His tenure that started in 2008 was marked by “football diplomacy,” which was a fruitless process. Now, in your opinion, what can Armenia interest the international community in, what expectations can there be from Armenia?
* It is hard for me to say that something can radically change in this issue, but I can assume that the diplomatic process with Turkey will still continue to be on the agenda. Let me remind that President Gül congratulated Serzh Sargsyan on his reelection, and as a result of that there were discussions again on whether the process of normalizing the Armenia-Turkey relations will be revived. I don’t know, I think it is possible that this process will be revived one day, and I am sure that the international community will support it. It is hard for me to predict whether Serzh Sargsyan will change his political line, furthermore, I can’t see any new emphases at all.
* Talking about joining the Eurasian Union and the Customs Union recently, Serzh Sargsyan advised not to believe those who say that Russia forced Armenia to become a member of the Customs Union. “The members of the Customs Union don’t wish to involve anyone just yet; at least, they don’t have such a desire, as far as we are concerned. …We don’t solve an issue of the white and the black. We don’t solve an either/or issue. We are honest in our aspirations, and our aspirations are in our people’s interests, we want our country to develop and to use the assistance of the Customs Union, as well as the Eurasian Union and the European Union, in that process.” Nonetheless, if Armenia faces that choice one day, how will it be perceived by the international community?
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* Certainly, the subject of the Eurasian Union is often too politicized, but I think that Russia treats that idea seriously and wishes new states, including Armenia, to become members of the union. It is obvious that the issue of Armenia’s membership is not cleared up yet; Armenia still maneuvers too. It is natural that there are countries like Ukraine, which are more important at this stage. It is obvious in the issue of Ukraine’s membership that there is geopolitical rivalry in terms of Russia’s prospects. However, I must state that Putin’s idea of the Eurasian Union is a really serious issue, and one should treat it rather seriously.
* Mr. Halbach, what will you say about the prospects of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement? The negotiations in the format of the OSCE Minsk Group haven’t yielded tangible results, moreover, it seems that new problems stalemate the negotiating process: the extradition of Azeri murderer Ramil Safarov and his heroization in Azerbaijan recently; now the issue of the Stepanakert airport has become a topical subject….
* There are two issues in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement: it is the fact of running around in circles, and the other factor is to really understand and realize that the settlement of this conflict should be a topical issue, since, as you have mentioned, for example the Safarov case testifies to the fact that this conflict has deep psychological consequences, and there is real danger of escalation in hostilities. I can’t say that external forces are interested in the settlement of this conflict, moreover, they seem to be in a rather useless condition, and there really is a stalemate. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a “frozen” conflict, and it is necessary to treat it quite seriously.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
Aravot Daily
