Arman Melikyan, a Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, talks about Armenia’s complementarianism, choice between the Eurasian Union and the EU
* On April 19, (still acting) Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan and Viktor Khristenko, the Chairman of the Eurasian Economic Commission’s Board, signed a memorandum of understanding in Yerevan. And on May 2, Tigran Sargsyan’s Cabinet decided to establish the Russian Lyceum Foundation. A year ago, Tigran Sargsyan rather vehemently claimed that the issue of Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Union was not on the agenda. How should one understand this difference between words and deeds?
* Firstly, one should certainly take into account the fact that Mr. Sargsyan is not entitled to make final decisions on the external political orientation or take independent actions presupposing that orientation. Therefore, the issue of not joining that union, which is still imaginary, will not be solved by symbolic actions. On the other hand, the argument of not having a common border with Russia is not convincing for a set of reasons. At the end of the day, we still don’t have a common border with the members of the European Union either. This kind of arguments are dangerous in the sense that they reveal ideological inconsistency of our policy: on the one hand we say that we choose the European system of values, on the other hand, we state that an obstacle that prevents us from joining the Eurasian Union is not the system of values existing in Russia, but lack of a common border. Does it mean that if tomorrow we have a common border with the Eurasian Union through Azerbaijan’s membership in it, we will also join, and won’t losing Artsakh be the price we will have to pay for that? However, all this is an abstraction, whereas I think that geopolitical processes progress at such a quick pace these days that options that seem preferable today will become undoable, and there will be no choice for us given the logic of such developments.
* It is interesting that the negotiations with the EU on the Association Agreement are yielding results in parallel with it, and it is not ruled out that among other countries, Armenia will sign that agreement by the end of the year. How long can Armenia pursue its complementarianism?
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* I think that the situation will crystallize within the next three-four years. Armenia will remain in the region that poses the most serious political-military threats, but depending on the policy that is pursued, it can be both an island of peace and a target.
* The report of the US Department of State was published recently and was preceded by speculations that the Carrefour supermarket chain’s entry into our market might be delayed. One year ago, the US made much more restrained statements about elections in Armenia. Is this related to the fact that we have switched to the Russian orientation?
* I think that actually we have never turned away from the Russian orientation. It is just that given the situation, we suffer from political squint; we look to the north with one eye and look to the West with the other eye. Let us just remember that the United States and the European Union jointly endorsed Serzh Sargsyan’s reassumption of the office, and they know the price of it better than anyone. It is important here that their attitude was the same as, in harmony with that of Russia. I am under the impression that the Euro-American ambassadorial community and observers did in Armenia everything that was possible to free the Russians from the unavoidable difficulties of having that election’s legitimacy recognized.
* There were rather strong statements about Karabakh in the report of the US Department of State. Do you think it is possible that these strong statements will cause violations of the ceasefire on the front line to turn into hostilities?
* I have already talked about Armenia’s becoming a possible military target, and with regard to this question, I can only say that our Western partners will prefer not to be involved in some military confrontation and to load Russia with military resolution of disputes in a vast region, including our region.
NELLY GRIGORYAN
