Generally, when political forces try to prove their tactical infallibility and to present their abilities to make “accurate calculations” and take accurate steps, they seem not to pay attention to the government’s more cunning nature intentionally or unintentionally. The government can be blamed and should be blamed for the vicious things and failures in the country, and the more it is criticized, the more prudently it will behave. However, as far as the processes on the political stage are concerned, if we consider the government’s, to be more precise, Serzh Sargsyan’s steps, those are continuous and obvious “victories” over the actors on the political stage. This may seem a contentious statement at first sight, but the existing facts seem to be more convincing.
The Armenian National Congress (ANC), the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF), and the Rule of Law Party (RPA) didn’t overcome the threshold in the Yerevan City Council election. Firstly, sacrificing the coalition Rule of Law Party (RLP) on the way to ensuring a “fair” election in the eyes of the international community was not a bad step taken by the government, for all that this party’s reputation and social trust in it are not even worth talking about. Levon Ter-Petrossian, the ANC leader, has been trying to present the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) as a force that “is breaking away from the government’s pyramid” and Tsarukyan’s steps as consistent steps that aim at causing “cracks” in the government. This is deemed to be one of the fantastically smart steps of the ANC and is explained like this: “If two powerful forces become enemies, what is wrong with that? We will use that, and the regime will be toppled.” However, not, say, the Hello Yerevan coalition, but the PAP “breaking away from the governmental pyramid” came second in the city council election. Here it doesn’t even matter whether the PAP will assume the offices, whether it will form a coalition with the RPA or will finally announce in September that it is opposition and will appear in Freedom Square. It is important that the force that has been leading the opposition electorate and a powerful movement since 2008 is not engaged in leading a movement, but is waiting for the other force to topple the government. The result of that expectation in the presidential election was that the ANC’s hopes were dashed; Tsarukyan didn’t even enter for the electoral competition, and as a result of that, the opposition’s votes were at the disposal of Raffi Hovhannisyan, the Heritage Party leader. Now as a result of Serzh Sargsyan’s equally accurate calculation, the PAP came second in the city council election.
Certainly, it is possible that even under these circumstances, there will be people who will start to prove that Serzh Sargsyan is snared by the ANC this time too (by the way, in the statement issued by the ANC, there is no mention as to which force had won the city council election, the PAP or the ANC); one can even organize protests in support of politically persecuted Vartan Oskanian etc. However, it is time to really assert that if political forces consider themselves to be very talented, have deeper knowledge of rumblings in political processes, moreover, they create an impression that they as good as direct those processes, they should not forget the clearly visible and palpable “results” of the government even achieved through superficial steps. And that “result” is neutralization of the opposition’s influence, leaving them out of political processes. Anyway, today we have a political stage, on which the opposition’s place is vacant, and the opposition itself has mostly contributed to that vacancy. Even if the PAP becomes opposition as of September, it is hard for an ordinary protester to understand the difference between the RPA and the PAP – if there is such, of course – regardless of whether members of the PAP hold offices or not or whether they hold rallies in Freedom Square or not. Furthermore, if, for example, Serzh Sargsyan starts to think of finding a successor in three or four years, can anyone rule out that Serzh Sargsyan may entrust Gagik Tsarukyan, the leader of the “alternative” force, with the task of managing the “government’s pyramid”? If this happens, one can assert quite honestly that Serzh Sargsyan has paid heed to all the “accurate calculations” made by Levon Ter-Petrossian.
Emma GABRIELYAN
