According to Arif Yunusov, if Azerbaijan’s President approves the proposed bill, he will deal a serious blow to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement.
At the end of last week, Azeri news agencies gave striking information. It turns out that the Occupied Territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan bill has been put forward. In Article 7 of the bill, there is an interesting clause, “Any Azeri citizen who will cooperate with any organization or agency of Armenia until the complete return of the lost territories will be brought to justice.” It is stated in that new bill that citizens of Azerbaijan (except for representatives of central administration who are engaged in negotiations on the Karabakh conflict settlement and diplomatic missions and persons who are given the proper authority by the parliament’s decision) who will cooperate with Armenia’s government and non-government organizations, judicial and legislative branches of power, parties, social associations, mass media, government and private, commercial and non-commercial businesses and their representatives will be held accountable in accordance with the
Criminal Code of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The bill is planned to be discussed in the Azeri parliament in the short run. This shows that in the run-up to the upcoming elections, the Azeri government represented by President Ilham Aliyev has given a renewed impetus to “nationalist” sentiment and continues to take concrete actions.
As for what consequences this bill will have on Azerbaijan’s reputation as a negotiating party is certainly the business of that country’s government, but it is not hard to imagine that it will be yet another trump card for the Armenian side to stress the Azeri leadership’s intolerance and unconstructive attitude. There are only a handful of Azeri political and social figures who, although seldom, visit Armenia, despite the negative sentiment that is dominant in their country, participate in different international conferences, give interviews to Armenian mass media. One of them is Arif Yunusov, the head of the department of conflict resolution and migration, Institute for Peace and Democracy, Baku, to whom Aravot turned, hoping to get clarification. We asked him what the Azeri government aimed at by putting forward that bill. The political scientist noted that the presidential election to take place in autumn underlay that document being prepared for the Azeri parliament. “It is no secret that during elections, politicians try to appear a patriot and a nationalist and play on narrow-mindedness. And this future decision is a rather good opportunity for narrow-minded people to gain political capital. Ramil Safarov’s heroization by the president and the actions against Akram Aylisli are also related to that. The reason for all that is that they get a positive response from narrow-minded people who consider themselves patriots. And politicians are not particularly concerned about the fact that the country’s reputation will be damaged, as in this case.” Arif Yunusov predicted that if such a decision is made and, more importantly, is signed by the President of Azerbaijan, it will deal a serious blow to the Karabakh conflict settlement. “It is hard to imagine that the Armenian side will engage in serious negotiations under such circumstances. Actually, after such a decision, a new situation will be created in the region, in general. I have no doubt that there will be a rise in tensions after that, first of all in the information field, then possibly on the front line. In any event, I don’t expect anything good,” the Azeri political scientist concluded.
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In response to our question whether this step could be explained by the pre-election period in Azerbaijan, political scientist Sergey Minasyan, the deputy director of the Caucasus Institute, stated during a conversation with Aravot that one could surely link it to internal political processes, in particular elections. “Ilham Aliyev tries to show decisiveness in this issue, so to say, but in reality, it is a sign of despair, because the Azeri side has stated many times that it tries to use Georgian experience while adopting such a statute. However, it is known that Georgian experience is all too unsuccessful, and at this moment, the Georgian government is even compelled to revise that statute; they are moderating it, because it is understandable that it has caused nothing but harm. It is clear that in the case of Azerbaijan, it will have the same fate as in the case of Georgia,” our interlocutor noted. According to S. Minasyan, this step also testifies to the fact that Azerbaijan has lost faith in other means of
influence and takes such a self-isolating step, and this document that has been put forward has actually been in force at least in the past 10 years. “Except for a few Azeris whom we know, no other expert visits Armenia, the other experts and journalists haven’t even concealed their attitude toward Armenia; Azeris avoid communicating with Armenian organizations at different levels. Therefore, nothing has actually changed. But the fact that they are trying to create a legal basis for that will make the Azeri side’s task more complicated. This issue will also make Azerbaijan a target of international organizations’ criticism, and it is to the Armenian side’s advantage insofar as it has become clear after Safarov’s extradition that no one will demand and expect the Armenian side to make unilateral concessions.” The Armenian side will have another argument, the political scientist thinks. “The Azeri side talks about reconciliation, compromise, whereas it takes steps that will rule out all possibilities of rapprochement between the sides at the level of NGOs. The arguments that the Armenian side gained after the Safarov case will become stronger now. The Azeri President will only lose in terms of foreign policy; he will gain nothing. And in terms of internal policy, perhaps he will, but it testifies to the fact that the processes on the internal political stage are such that he is compelled to take this kind of steps,” Sergey Minasyan noted.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
Aravot Daily
