The political scientist sees “hostile elements” in the attitude of the Russian Federation
President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan didn’t attend the unofficial meeting of the leaders of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) countries. By the way, it was the first time the President of Armenia had ever failed to attend such a high-level event. Yerevan’s explanation was interesting: the President of the Republic of Armenia will not leave for Bishkek on May 28 in order to attend the events dedicated to Republic Day. Stepan Grigoryan, a political scientist and the director of the Analytical Center on Globalization and Regional Cooperation, thinks that the Armenian side’s explanation is formally convincing. “It was a national holiday in Armenia, very important for us, and it is good that the president stayed in Armenia.” However, taking into account Armenia’s relations with Russia and past experience that all Armenian Presidents have always attended all those events which were attended by the Russian President, a question arises what the reason for such an attitude could be. Stepan Grigoryan said in this regard: “The holiday was a good excuse not to go, but two problems, I think, underlie this kind of decision. The first reason is the increase in gas prices by a high percentage, which has caused a big fuss in Armenia and has obviously weakened our government’s position. The second reason is Lavrov’s statement.” Let us remind that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated at a joint press conference with the Azeri Foreign Minister the other day: “Certainly, the status-quo is unacceptable; moreover, it is unacceptable for everyone – first of all, for Azerbaijan, Armenia and those who live in Nagorno-Karabakh. I am quite sure of that. The status-quo means not only failure to solve the issue of the Azeri territories’ return but also Armenia’s economic blockade. That is the reason why there is no need to convince anyone in the unacceptability of maintaining that situation.” By the way, the political scientist even sees “hostile elements” in this statement made by Lavrov, in particular in the phrase “the Azeri territories’ return,” since neither the US nor Europe nor Iran, not even Turkey, have talked much about this issue recently. “It is obvious that both the increase in gas prices and Lavrov’s statement were received painfully by the Armenian government, and it has had its manifestation. Yes, it is not a demarche, since it is obvious that there is a formal explanation, but it is obvious that these two issues had an indirect effect on the Armenian President’s attitude,” our interlocutor said. By the way, the President of the Republic of Armenia didn’t attend the unofficial conference of the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) that commenced in
Astana yesterday either. The President of Belarus didn’t attend it either. Our interlocutor interprets the Armenian President’s failure to attend that conference as follows: “Armenia is not a member of the EurAsEC, it is a member of the CSTO; it suggests a different approach. In the second case, it is easier to explain; Armenia enjoys the status of an observer at that organization. Therefore, there is an answer here too. However, this also stems from the previous problem. I am sure that the Russian Federation will demand answers from the leaders of the Eastern Partnership countries at both informal conferences, and the President of Armenia wouldn’t like those discussions to take place against the background of the above-mentioned problems.” Let us remind that there is an intention to sign Association Agreements with Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, and Georgia within the framework of the Eastern Partnership Project by the end of the year, at the Vilnius Summit. Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia have no connections with either the CSTO or the EurAsEC; thus, they have no problem. Belarus, though, is a member of the EurAsEC, but it is not active in the projects of the Eastern Partnership, and actual relations are not developed. So the Russian Federation would have demanded answers mostly from Armenia. We inquired how probable it was that in the current situation, the Russian Federation would take a stiffer stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, particularly given the fact that the Western wing also seemed to be inclined to invigorate the Karabakh conflict settlement process. Jean-Claude Mignon, the President of the PACE, who was on an official visit to Azerbaijan earlier this week, stated that the year 2013 might be a turning point in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, meaning the fact that in 2013-2014, Armenia and Azerbaijan would take turns in the presidency of the PACE. In the European official’s opinion, it is a brilliant opportunity to take serious steps to resolve the Karabakh issue. Earlier Sabine Freizer, the Director of the Europe Program, International Crisis Group, had said that the OSCE Minsk Group’s mandate had expired, and that new options of the Karabakh settlement had to be found. “It is not ruled out that there will be invigoration in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, and it will be not so advantageous for the Armenian sides. It is very probable that the very Russian Federation will move in that direction. However, there is one thing about which I want to warn the Russian side; if Armenia, to put it bluntly, becomes weaker in the region with regard to the Karabakh issue or as a result of competition, we can congratulate Russia. The Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance will force Russia out of the region completely. If the Russian Federation makes those mistakes, yes, Armenia will become weaker, but we can already congratulate the Russian Federation, even officially, on the victory of the Turkish-Azeri alliance. Unfortunately, it is visible that the Russian Federation has taken such an attitude, since it takes steps that are not in its strategic interests. If the Russian Federation intends to take this path, we cannot help them.” Our interlocutor thinks that in this situation, Yerevan should continue to be active in the Eastern Partnership, and society should support the government, since that project will be very useful for Armenia.
NELLY GRIGORYAN
