According to the President of RF Caucasus research company Alexander Krilov, Armenia is interested in the combat of Russian army.
– Russia has started supplying Azerbaijan with about $ 1 billion worth striking military equipment, – wrote the Russian remarkable newspaper “Vedomosti” recently adverting to its sources in the RF Defense Ministry and in the military-industrial complex. Armenians are concerned about the fact that Azerbaijan is buying large amounts of military equipment, about the fact that the official Baku buys equipment not only from RF but Ukraine, Turkey and Israel. But more disturbing is the fact that Azerbaijan is arming especially RF, the Armenia’s strategic partner. Mr. Krilov, what do you think with regard to this issue?
– Supply of any military equipment in the conflict zone does not contribute to peaceful settlement of the conflict and lead to increasing of tension. It is clear that the delivery of the equipment to Azerbaijan deserved an extreme negative feedback in Armenia. Obviously, it could have a negative impact on our bilateral relations. Usually, in such cases, there is not shortage of emotionally, to put it mildly, extreme criticism in the media of Armenia towards Moscow. Personally, I absolutely do not like it for several reasons. But let’s try to understand everything without emotions.
“Vedomosti” newspaper is not the official representative of RF government. Without the information from official sources about the transaction, it is likely that the newspaper could have inadvertently distorted the real picture. But after the publication there was no denial from the official sources, therefore it is more likely that the publication by “Vedomosti” in part or in full meets the truth, and the outflow of the newspaper was thought.
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If the transaction to supply striking military equipment for about 1 billion dollars from Russia to Azerbaijan is really true, then why the Russian authorities go for it. Apparently, there are some considerations, desire to make money, to invest the amount received in its own military-industrial system and modernization of the Russian army, as well as realization that Azerbaijan can easily buy equivalent systems and military equipment in the international market for $ 1 billion, which it does. It is known to everybody and you also mentioned it in your question.
Will RF act wisely losing the possibility to retain levers of influence over Baku (armature requires technical maintenance, spare parts, ammunition, etc.) and the opportunity to earn good money and to use earned money for its own army … Even if it deserves a predictable stormy response in confederate Armenia, can such a transaction leave the correlation of forces unchanged in the region? Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and confederate of RF having security guarantees from them that are stipulated by specific agreements, is interested in combat of the Russian army. If it is done with neither Russian, nor Armenian funds, but Azerbaijani, maybe in this case it will be advantageous to Armenia as well. Naturally, in the case if Armenia’s security protection is implemented more ideally, powerful and equipped with modern military equipment than what is supplied to Azerbaijan on commercial basis. In fact, that’s what happens. We may say that as a result the defense system of Armenia is strengthening, including also with the Azerbaijani oil dollars. In fact, we should not consider everything in the context of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, the potential dangers of safety in Armenia are much broader, in relation to what is done and can be done in southern borders of Armenia.
– Mr. Krilov, Armenia and Azerbaijan are in a no-war, no-peace situation. Does Russia, as an OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing country, contribute to the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, supplying weapons to both sides in the conflict?
– To prevent the new war and to maintain stability in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, it is essential to maintain such balance of forces that will not allow any party of the conflict (even though everyone knows that it actually the matter is about one party) to reply on quick defeat of the opponent in a military way.
If there is still no war, and even under the conditions of stable tension its prospective in the nearest future is not seen in the contact line, it means that in our cruel and unjust world Russian policy is overcoming this problem, it means that RF is in line with its role of OSCE MG co-chair country. That does not mean at all that the Russian policy is ideal, it may cause fundamental discontent in Armenia, in other South Caucasus countries, with our Western counterparts, even in RF. Nonetheless, this policy should be discussed in terms of modern international and regional issues, in comparison with the policy that is conducted by the other major powers in the neighboring regions: the Middle East and North Africa. The acceptable ways and means to resolve the problems over there, can they be an alternative for Armenia to RF’s current policy and its confederate relations. Armenia is an independent state, and it will answer that question.
– Recently, the Minister Energy and Natural Resources Armen Movsisyan meeting with journalists confirmed that the Government of Armenia discusses with “Gazprom” the issue of selling 20% of the Armenian share in “ArmRusGasArd”. On the other hand, on the basis of gas prices rise can we see the final processes in the EU-Armenia relations? Does Russian side suggest change in gas prices in the result of seeking signing of EU Association agreement, as many have mentioned these days?
– The formulation, “the question is under discussion” does not mean at all that the issue has been settled, and that the decision to sell the share is adopted. Gas prices have long been a topic of discussion with the authorities of Armenia, adequate agreements have been reached on the price increase, which has been postponed until the end of the presidential elections in Armenia. All this took place earlier than once “Final processes of Armenia-EU relations” theme became topical. In practice, along with the importance of the Russian gas price for Armenia the matter is about more important issue, about historical choice of Armenia, which appeared in a difficult situation, between two integration unions.
From outer, in the world, the rules of the game for Armenia are constantly changing. With the establishment of the customs union, many rules will be changed in the post-Soviet territory. By what rules of the game Armenia prefers to play, European Union or Eurasia, depends just on it. It will be its own choice and personal responsibility.
The EU’s future development prospective under the conditions of insurmountable crisis still is not clear. Furthermore, it is not clear (if not more) the prospects of its further expansion and the projects that are related to the post-Soviet territory.
It is difficult to assess the fates of such integration projects, such as the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union. It is not excluded that, despite widespread mistrust around them, these projects have a historical perspective. The opposite is not excluded as well.
In the modern world it is difficult to keep the possibility to play the game by two rules, the EU and Eurasia. It assumes just this slogan sounded in Yerevan, “and – and” instead of “either-or”. Although in the past some Armenian politicians were able to “walk in the rain between streams” and stay dry. Will present political officials be successful in it, time will show?
Emma GABRIELYAN
