According to Washington based Russian politician Sergey Markedonov, the atmosphere is too dramatized both in Moscow and in Yerevan.
– According to the Kremlin, the President of RF Vladimir Putin is going to make a Caspian tour in August, now he is getting ready for his official visit to Azerbaijan,- this was said by the head of Press Attaché for the President Dmitry Peskov. The visit will be the first visit of Putin’s new tenure to Azerbaijan, it will take place on the rapid activation background of the military cooperation between Moscow and Baku. Mr. Markedonov, what do you expect from Putin’s visit to Baku, are signing of new agreements on military system possible?
– Really, this visit is important for several reasons. First of all, the visit takes place in the relations between Moscow and Baku, however, after a certain coldness, related to failing to reach a consensus in the issue of the Gabala radar station, uncertainty in the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, as well as critical issues in the presidential election. Though Ilham Aliyev is the favorite in the elections, and his opponents are weak enough, however, the elections are a challenge. It is important for RF to experience the dynamics of these developments, see all with its own eyes, listen to the players, get acquainted with the situation, as they from close distance.
With regard to military technical cooperation, you mentioned that this cooperation has rapidly activated now. But isn’t the arms supply agreement was signed in 2010? Now, information was published regarding the implementation of previously adopted agreements. The cooperation between Moscow and Baku, to be honest, is not a secret for anyone. Yes, the RF strategic ally is Armenia, but Moscow at least starting from ruling of Putin, has a very constructive relationship with Azerbaijan. Starting from the first phase of his ruling, from his visit to Azerbaijan in 2001, Moscow has sought to carefully balance the relationship not to cross the red line. I do not think that the new agreements will be signed, but the positive trend will be.
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In addition, do not forget that the elections will be awarded to Western criticism. Meanwhile, RF is seeking not to interfere in the internal processes, and in this regard, RF needs Azerbaijan. It is a very delicate situation, Ilham Aliyev is proposed, he will be officially nominated as a candidate. This will be his third term in office from the prospective to legitimate him internationally. I think these questions will be in the focus of attention.
– It is known that during the visit of RF President Putin to Azerbaijan, energy issues between Baku and Moscow will be discussed, but this system will not be the only topic to be discussed. Although official Baku was skeptically expressing to the idea of Eurasian Union and the Customs Union, but many believe that these topics will be on the agenda for the upcoming negotiations. What do you think, will these issues be brought up before Azerbaijan?
– No, I do not think that there is an issue on the agenda related to the member ship with Customs Union. Even if the issue is not intensively discussed with Armenia, at a time when Armenian is a military political ally, the Russian military bases are located in Armenia, the Russian frontiers defend the borders, but in the case of Azerbaijan, I think, the economic integration is not a daily problem, because the energy in Azerbaijan, in many respects, is competitor of Russia. So, whatever is said about the warming of relations between Moscow and Baku, there exists the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline, is not it? … And Baku is not going withdraw from the “Contract of the century”, at least, we do not see its preconditions that Azerbaijan is going to review its energy policy based on the “Contract of the century”. I think that they also realize in Moscow that there cannot be crucial relationships with Baku, but certain mutually beneficial projects, security cooperation from the perspective of Dagestan. Such scenarios are possible.
– And as a result of Putin’s visit to Baku, can we expect increasing of the role of Russian Mission in the settlement process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
– To some extent the role of the mission will increase. But whoever seeks to resolve the problem, for example, they speak about the role of France, RF, U.S. in the settlement process, it’s all the same, nothing will happen unless the parties agree what can be settled. If the neighbors are fighting, are in war, and I come as a mediator, I try to reconcile them, anyway, my resources are going to be limited, because I do not live in that building, yes, they will respectfully listen to my recommendations and advice, but no more. I think it’s a fallacy to believe that Moscow has a wonderful recipe for NK conflict resolution. Also, what does it mean conflict resolution? For Baku and Yerevan, the answers to this question are different, isn’t it?
– Mr. Markedonov, there is a view that the U.S. can not order today’s Azerbaijan’s authorities, while the Azerbaijani authorities have responsibilities before RF, such as not allowing the outbreak of war in NK, and as for other issues: selling of arms, bellicose rhetoric, and corruption issues are topics intended only for internal consumption of Azerbaijan. How realistic do you think is the outbreak of hostilities in the current phase?
– The hostilities do not arise not because of anyone in Baku or Yerevan is responsible to anybody, but because the military political balance of powers is such, and the next, because the general political balance is such. It is often forgetting that in the modern world the war is not only a war of tanks and machine guns, but also political support factor. If the majority of the West was supporting Georgia in Russian-Georgian issue, and it was clear that the Russian intentions were carefully treated because RF has a nuclear weapon, large areas, therefore, the resources of pressure on it is not great, while the possibilities of imposing pressure on Azerbaijan and Armenia are more. But, on the other hand, there is no sympathy leaning towards any side, and Baku realizes it perfectly.
So, if the conflict resumed, interventions of a variety of mediators will begin: calls from Brussels, Washington, Moscow, requesting to sit at the negotiating table, and so on. In my opinion, if there is no Blitzkrieg war by Azerbaijani side, in other cases the chances are low. There are no information, political dominant advantages, and if there is no confidence to win in three days, then the problems arise afterwards, they will begin positional war, victims, disappointment in public mood, external pressures, and so on. It’s one thing to say from the tribune, and it’s quite different to have a real war. Also, the political figures of Azerbaijani remember very well examples and experience of Elchibey, Mutalibov that not so favorable situation was created within the country. So, the reason is not that someone has made a blood oath to someone, but there is a ratio of forces, which does not allow us to make rapid movements. If the ratio were different, they would probably think over the possibilities of reviewing the position.
– Mr. Markedonov, in your opinion, what is happening in the Armenian-Russian relations,is it a freezing of relations, which was supposed to take place, or it is really a matter of choice for Armenia, either the Association Agreement with the European Union, or Eurasian Union, and the Customs Union.
– There had been also complications and disagreements in the past between Moscow and Yerevan. For example, I always remember the then Speaker of the National Assembly Arthur Baghdasaryan’s famous statement in 2006 that the future of Armenia is not with the RF, but European Union and NATO. It was not just a statement of a blogger or a journalist, his speech was corrected, amended, but the statement costs him loss of his position, it means that the subject was raised in the past too.
I think differences in attitudes between RF and Armenia occur in several issues, the cooperation of RF with Azerbaijan and Turkey, on the other hand, with the West and Georgia. Here are the issues around which certain misinterpretations take place. And misinterpretations happen to all the allies because the allies are not allied with great love, but because they have a common interest.
The situation is not worthwhile to be dramatized both in Moscow and in Yerevan. You know, when they say that there is a vector of Europeanization, we should note that not only Armenian is Europeanized. The EU-Azerbaijan relations, for example. Now some people say that Moscow should strengthen its ties with Azerbaijan. It is wonderful. But I am asking a simple question, what, will Azerbaijan cancel the “Contract of the century” tomorrow in the result of its love to RF and declare that it is not going to make friends with the West anymore … RF’s ally Kazakhstan, Armenia, as well as Azerbaijan, and Georgia are trying to establish relations with the West. As for Georgia, they announced that they are signing with EU, but Štefan Füle came and said, no, we are only initialing.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
