According to Ruben Mehrabyan, RF acts accordingly feeling that its presence in the South Caucasus is under threat.
– Mr. Mehrabyan, the opposition political parties again have voiced calls to unite, arguing that the authorities will not stay long at power. How do you assess the position of the authorities and the opposition at this stage? Do you see grounds for maturation of force-majeure situations?
– The only way out that can protect us from force-majeure and tragic scenarios, is an open and public dialogue on a broad agenda, including both internal and foreign policy, including the security of vitally important issues. It must be focused on real, radical and systemic reforms based on a broad social and political consensus, with the conscious that we are all in one boat. And in the current situation it is obvious that the initiator of such a dialogue must be and should be just the authorities. I have no doubt that we are just wasting our time, thereby dilapidating already significantly worn out resources of our statehood, which is unacceptable. Thus, we will lose our statehood.
– Recently, in an interview with commonspace.eu, the Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharyan said,- “The Customs Union is an obstacle to signing of the Association Agreement.” In your opinion, can the possible pressures of RF in the coming 2-3 months, result in RA authorities to refuse initialing?
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– I think this is a belated confession that the so-called “customs union” is an obstacle. It is not only an obstacle to the Association Agreement with the EU, but also a threat to the Armenian statehood. And it is belated, because otherwise it would not be introduced into the circulation by the hands of Serge Sargsyan, the so-called “and – and” meaningless concept, according to which, presumably, it is possible to combine the integration with European Union with Putin’s so-and-so projects based on neo-imperial “land collection” concept. Of course, no. It is simply self-deception. Moreover, the Association Agreement has no alternative for Armenia in civilization, historical, strategic aspects. And the foreign policy should not be mixed with the trade regime. Yes, Armenia should eventually sign the Association Agreement with the European Union, becoming a part of the common market of united Europe, having a free trade regime with the market having half a billion solvent consumer, which is currently our main trading partner.
And it does not mean hostility with Russia or disruption of economic ties. Armenia and Russia are full members of the World Trade Organization and, accordingly, assumed international obligations, under which it is totally possible to form new, civilized format of relations with a Russia. But, for this reason, Armenia’s diplomacy should not follow the events in the status of an observer, be engaged in copying scared euphemism rather than clearly formulate our national interests, and actively pursue it.
In the coming 2-3 months, everything is expected from Russia. Yes, initialing by Armenia is not to the benefit of Russia. Although, recently Russian circles are trying to convince us that Armenia is not longed to be seen in the Customs Union, that there have not been or are or will be pressures on Armenia, but we should keep displaying vigilance, not to yield to temptations, nor threats. Our nearly 200-year-old path with Russia should prompt us that we are expected to have both a “soap” under our feet, and “shootings from behind the back” or activation of the agent network at the most crucial moment. I want to believe that our Lord will be favorable to us and those efforts will be in vain, and we will make our own already decided civilized option a reality.
– The RF Customs Service has suspended all Ukrainian exports, which is estimated as a political decision by the RF, due to the fact that Ukraine is resisting, not willing to join the Customs Union and the Eurasian alliance. What does the commercial war by the RF show, how can this battle of nerves end for Russia?
– Evidently, this is a political campaign unleashed by Russia, a complex punitive action aimed at ruining economic fundamentals of Ukraine, why not, also destabilization of political situation in order to obstacle the signing of the Association Agreement by creating insurmountable obstacles. I am sure that this “senseless and merciless” step of Kremlin, according to Pushkin, will speed up the process of Ukraine to the west, about which there is a consensus between the authorities, the opposition and the public. And Ukraine will sign an Association Agreement in Vilnius. And all of this will end for Russia over the fact that it will reconcile with the idea that it is not possible to degrade and kneel down an independent state of 45 million population, which has decided to become an integral and deserved part of the civilized world. I am also sure that this will essentially change the geopolitics of the post-Soviet territory by bankrupting Putin’s entire foreign policy strategy, as any imperial or neo-imperial project may not be viable without Ukraine. I do not rule out that after Vilnius, a destabilized circle will begin in Russia, because the history shows that the internal discontents in the country on the background of foreign policy failures can reach the peak. The Ukrainian “loss” can be very painful for the Russian society.
– Recently, the RF President Vladimir Putin’s working visit to Azerbaijan was held. Do the Russian-Azerbaijani relations in economic, energy and military sectors threaten Armenia as the RF “strategic” partner interests, in general, and in particular, in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, because there is a belief that NKR issue, however, is not one of priority issues for Putin.
– Armenia’s main threat, here, is the fact that over the past century Russia for the fourth time feeling that its presence in the South Caucasus is under threat, uses the same scheme: supports regressive Azerbaijan or the most regressive and prejudiced segments of Azerbaijani society, encouraging their Armenophobia and directing against Armenia and Armenians wishing to rend from the empire. So happened in 1905, 1917-18, 1988-91. I hope Azerbaijan also knows that this kind of imperial combination has led to a disaster in the region, and it does not only promise good thing to Azerbaijan, but it is no less a threat for Azerbaijan.
In addition, the current situation does not allow Russia to freely dispose the Karabakh factor in advancing its interests. Russia is just one of the three co-chair countries. But this cynical deal, of course, will complicate the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement process that it will more detach Azerbaijan from reality, will toughen its position, but essentially will not change the status quo in the region. The transaction had a positive effect, as well. The last illusion dispersed in Armenia towards guarantees of the “big brother”. It is difficult to formulate better than Mr. Dugin. Russia is solely for its benefit in the Caucasus, neither for Armenia nor for Azerbaijan. Therefore, Armenia can no longer afford the “luxury” as “friends forever” or “eternal enemies”, but should be satisfied with “only” its eternal interests.
Emma GABRIELYAN
