According to political scientist Armen Grigoryan, visiting fellow of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association Research Centre and the University of Banská Bystrica, the assertions regarding the danger of isolating NKR from Armenia are the result of Russian campaign.
– What expectations can we have from the EU Association process, in particular, from the application of a free trade agreement?
– The EU Association Agreement can promote the long-term implementation of reforms, which enables Armenia to take the path of building the public life based on the Western standards. The formation of democratic society on the basis of pluralism, the full protection of human rights is only possible with integration into modern, progressive system. Now, even 20 years later, it becomes possible to implement what the Central European and Baltic countries have conducted since mid of 90s.
Read also
And particularly regarding the free trade regime, a few days ago, a detailed analysis was published as to how much the trade volume will increase, what social consequences it will have, and so on. The expected results are positive.
In addition, the free trade regime can stimulate the investments, more contributing to the creation of new jobs. Of course, it will take a lot of prerequisites, some of them are technical, such as transferring to the European standards of food processing. Additional funds will be allocated to the EU budget for 2014-2021 for modernization of technical upgrading, certification, and infrastructures of the Eastern Partnership countries. Most importantly, however, is the provision of other prerequisites that depends on us, provision of priority of the law, immunity of property rights, in particular, elimination of the arbitrariness of the tax authorities in terms of reduction of corruption, elimination of oligarchy impact, and so on. On the other hand, free trade regime will not only promote export but also will lead to intensifying competition in the domestic market, along with its positive impact.
– There are fears that the free trade regime will lead to the isolation of Karabakh from Armenia.
– Not only Armenia, but also Georgia and Moldova are related to the issue of unsettlement of the conflict with regard to the free trade. The EU requires that the partner countries ensure that the goods manufactured in the countries not within the free trade regime (Russia, China, etc.), for example, labeled “produced in Armenia”, not to be exported to EU. For this reason, the partner country should, in particular, ensure the possibility of visits by EU inspectors to control the production capacity. Georgia and Moldova do not control a part of their territory and some parts of the external border, and thus can not guarantee the absence of re-export. For this reason, the Government of Moldova is ready to install control points along the dividing line with Transnistria, it should be noted that moving between Moldova and Transnistria is free. Georgia is not ready for such a step, because it can be perceived as a de facto recognition of independence.
But, maybe the EU fears that the Russian soldiers can agree with some Georgian businessmen to organize an export from Russia to the occupied territories, and then from Georgia to the EU, which in the condition of customs duty exemption could provide a big profit. This is only a guess, but in any case the Government of Georgia should find a solution.
In our case, the situation is different, unlike Georgia and Moldova, Armenia does not have a problem with regard to ensuring compliance with rules of origin of products, in particular, organizing visits of inspectors. As for the possibility of export of products from Karabakh, let us not forget that currently the vast majority of Armenia’s export goes to the EU, and the origin of some products theoretically possible of Karabakh is not problematic. Because of the Association Agreement, the assertion on danger of isolating Karabakh from Armenia are the result of the Russian campaign, and we have to worry not about the EU, but the policy led by Russia.
– What steps can be expected from Russia, intensification of anti-propaganda against EU integration, or other pressures as well?
– As for the campaign, for example, in Moldova during the last three years, approximately 40 NGO was established to specifically advocate the “Eurasian integration”, naturally, vast resources of advocacy be directed in Ukraine. For Armenia, it is also expected to strengthen the campaign, unfortunately, the number of those guided by the instruction from the Russian side and the so-called “initiators” in Armenia’s political field, analytical frameworks is great. Because the Euro integration, everywhere there are traces of Russian influence starting from the talks about the danger of isolating Karabakh from Armenia up to homosexual topics.
It is also obvious that Russia does not respect the sovereignty of Armenia, this is evidenced by the fact that a few days ago, the First Secretary of the Russian Embassy in Armenia Alexander Vasilyev publicly called Armenia-EU negotiations a ‘separate’, complaining of their privacy, and also projected “hot autumn” in Armenia. In other words, the officials in the RF think that Armenia is obligated to be accountable to them for the negotiations led by it. Similar expression of lack of respect for the sovereignty of the country should deserve a rough treatment. Unfortunately, at this time, too, as well as in many other cases, particularly in the case of supplying weapons to Azerbaijan by Russia, the official circles of Armenia did not respond in any way.
In addition to the propaganda, other pressures, of course, are possible. The “economic war” led against Ukraine in these days is in front of all of us. Indeed, the campaign against Ukraine is especially strong, because the RF realizes that if Ukraine irreversibly stands on the way of European integration, the creation of the Eurasian Union would become meaningless. Let’s hope that Ukraine, despite the pressure, will sign the EU Association Agreement, opening a new era for agreement initialing countries.
It is possible to apply pressure on Armenia in the political and economic spheres, as well as speculations around the settlement process of Karabakh conflict. Unfortunately, the only option that could be considered now is to that Russia will display politeness and will relate to Armenia with respect, as well as to the choice of Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.
– And does Armenia have enough potentials to withstand the pressures, and whether the EU is able to provide additional guarantees of security to Armenia?
– First of all, in my opinion, the EU is not even obliged to give us guarantee of security if we do not eliminate our internal drawbacks and faulty traditions. To resist pressures and to neutralize threats it requires a public consensus, which is impossible to achieve unless there are false charged convicts, and the police act of violence is continued with new attempts to “prepare a case” against civilian activists, unless measurements are not applied against arbitraries of the oligarchs, and so on and so forth.
We need to evaluate the available risks and the sources thereof and develop plans on neutralization. For example, why is the pressure possible in the energy sector, since the entire energy sector has appeared under the management of Russians? We are rightly complaining about the Turkish blockade, but we forget that we also have the problem of self-isolation, it can also be called the problem of self-blockade. A few years ago, when the Iran- Armenia gas pipeline project was discussed, the top officials were saying,- “We can not ignore Russia’s interests,” and finally, the pipeline was built with a small diameter and was handed over to the Russians.
Emma GABRIELYAN
