According to the expert of international studies Armen Kharazyan, the thesis about the Russian pressures is deniable that Armenia allegedly could not resist without endangering the country.
– On September 3, as a result of Sargsyan-Putin negotiations in Moscow it became clear that Armenia is going to join the Customs Union. In your opinion, what was the result driven by RA authorities to make this decision? What inner political, regional processes could affect the decision-making process? And the next, as a result of this decision, do you feel rearrangements in the inner political system of Armenia possible?
– The answer to the first question is the failure of the statehood culture in Armenia. The apologists of the Customs Union justify that we solve not the issue of the statehood but the survival, to which the independence may subordinate. They recall the last 700 years, saying that it is possible to develop in stateless or quasi-state conditions, and in the geopolitical position, like ours, being protectorate is more preferable than the sovereign, because it is just physically safe, while the independence is a heavy, over and above the shoulders of Armenians. Today, this concern, unfortunately, is dominant not only in the government of Armenia, but also in circles close to the government, the opposition and the society, at large. It has acquired a systemic quality, leading to over-dependence on Russia. This is evident in all areas, military, economic, political, humanitarian, and household. The phenomenon is a legacy of the Soviet and even earlier period. During the independence, it was to be overcome. Unfortunately, with the exception of the early 90s, Armenia not only did nothing to throw off this legacy, but gradually restored and renovated it. Today, almost all levers of influence on Armenia’s life belong to Russia, and the pathological conviction of being dependent from external leadership, inadequacy and own meanness is clearly displayed in the public psychology. There is not other society in the world that has been so indifferent and will-less towards its independence and sovereignty as it is Armenia, today. Sargsyan’s decision on joining the Customs Union is a logical refuge of this process. It did not ripen in one day, but it is the result of more than a half a decade of state-public crisis and the bankruptcy of values. The problems absolutely are not in internal, external, or regional challenges, but the lack of our will and ability to respond to them. Unfortunately, this mission failed with regard to both directions.
The second part of the question whether inner political rearrangements are possible, I think it does not matter. If Armenia should come out of this abyss, we need new forces and new ideas, and not restoration of the old ones. The old ones have already told their word, and the result of it is this. Whether there will be a new force, whether a new goal will be formulated, whether people will support it, the change will take place, if not, the third Republic of Armenia can be considered exhausted.
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– The members of Armenia’s ruling party say that the most of Europeans approached Armenia’s decision with understanding because “it is first of all conditioned by the issues of security, and this is more than understandable in political circles.” Is the independence of Armenia, sovereignty and security provided by joining the Customs Union, and through Moscow? How do you generally feel about recent attempts of justifying similar formulations regarding the RA “security” with this decision?
– Customs Union is a trade-economic integration mechanism, which is to restore control of Russia over the former Soviet states and to suspend the integration of these states to Europe. I am not aware of a serious study on the economic impact of the membership, and its comparative analysis with the EU perspective, and I’m not sure that the leadership of Armenia has similar document at hand. The problem was presented to the RA leadership, and was perceived as a political, and a political decision was made.
Meanwhile, just in the sense of political, this Customs Union is not supporting, but preventing the development of Armenia, not strengthening, but disorganizing the country’s sovereignty, accordingly, the arguments about security are absurd. Security and independence are issues of different plane. The security is the component of independence. In joining the Customs Union, Armenia further deepens its dependence on Russia. How can it contribute to our security? Maybe the RA leaders have the illusion that Russia will take on greater responsibility for the security of Armenia. But don’t we already have CSTO, Russian military base in Gyumri, and the Russian troops guarding the border of Armenia. What does this Customs Union add to the security of Armenia, which was not provided by the existing military-political cooperation? The sober answer is obvious: nothing.
In fact, the only serious concern regarding the security is that, if Armenia did not agree to go to the Customs Union, then Russia would have exerted leverages to indicate that the security of Armenia is in danger. This is quite possible. But isn’t this the most evident evidence of the reality that in the Armenian-Russian relations Armenia has passed all possible margins, and each such concession does not threaten the security of Armenia, but its statehood in general.
– Recently, during the EPP Political Assembly, a resolution was adopted, in which the pressure exerted by the RF against Armenia was condemned. Mr. Kharazyan, can we say that Moscow with recent actions in Armenia-Russian, Russian-Azerbaijani relations (to some extent also with messages around Russian-Georgian relations) succeeded in strengthening its position in the region, which, in fact, the Europeans record it clearly indicating about the pressure.
– Again, this is not the victory of Russia, but the bankruptcy of Armenia. The thesis about the Russian pressures is deniable that Armenia allegedly could not resist without endangering the country, thus it obeyed them. This is the theory that if you please the peron facing you and fulfill its any demand, then it will get enough and will not present a new demand. This is a delusion, the demands will not only stop, but they will grow and become tougher, resulting in eventually deficiency of own resources and weak-willed. This is the most serious challenges facing Armenia today, and joining the Customs Union does not restrain, but, unfortunately, accelerates its oncoming.
The President of Armenia stated in Moscow that he has made a decision to join the Customs Union taking both the international community and his own society by surprise. I think that the Armenian society has a right to request to reveal the grounds of such decision, whether necessary constitutional, legal and procedural requirements were maintained when making such strategic decisions: researches, public and inter-agency discussions, motions, opinions, parliamentary hearings. If not, then it is necessary to examine the constitutionality of the decision, and also whether the President has not exceeded his official powers by declaring a decision, in which he has autocratic right to it.
This is, I think, one of the main ways, with which the Armenian community can pursue at least partially neutralizing the effects of what happened, both up to Vilnius and beyond, forcing that the discussion of the issue is not considered closed, but transferred to the Parliament and the Constitutional court. The problem so far is reversible, and, I hope that Armenia has not yet said its last word here.
Emma GABRIELYAN
