According to Arif Yunusov, the number of so thinkers has grown in Azerbaijan, and of those who think they will be continued to be fed with promises.
– Mr. Yunusov, what was the difference between the presidential elections held in Azerbaijan on October 9 compared to previous elections, what was the atmosphere they were held in?
– The elections were held as usual, in the presence of using all administrative resource, as usual, there were falsifications, use of budgetary institutions, as always, we became witnesses of the game “merry-go-round” that has already become boring, when the same group of voters was taken to several polling stations by the bus, and they were voting several times. As always, there are pressures on dissidents and first of all on opposition leaders and others, which is the best known to Armenia, where there is the same picture.
The difference is only in the scale. As the response of the authorities should not surprise that the elections were democratic and free, and the incumbent president has definitely won, and the opposition has lost with no public support, so the response of the international observers were traditional, the majority, particularly the CIS countries’ delegations, gladly welcomed the election results, as well as the majority of the Western delegations. Yes, there were a few small groups, including from the OSCE delegation, who stated about the frauds. But after intimidations of Azerbaijani authorities that they radically will review their approaches to the organization, I have no doubt that as a result the OSCE final decision will be reviewed at a later date. Generally, is was Azerbaijani “Groundhog Day”… In other words, if we approach the elections from traditional perspective, in terms of numbers and official results, there was nothing new in this election.
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But, actually there has been a novelty. During Ilham Aliyev’s ten years of ruling and in the presence of pressures over dissidents in the society, the atmosphere of depression and intimidations against the authorities has been significantly grown. The authorities allowed at some moments, like at the pre-election period, criticize them, but in abstract, not concretely. Sometimes they were allowing scolding one or the other ministers. But, the President’s personality and his family were under strict Taboo. And suddenly, a man appears (Jamil Hasanli) and speak publicly on banned subjects, about the matters that Ilham Aliyev is not a monarch, but only number one official, and therefore he must submit a declaration to the public about his and his family members’ accounts and homes in abroad, and generally to participate in the debates. In modern Azerbaijan, this was a novelty for many in the society.
Moreover, if we take into account that the opposition had spent much time on the debate on unifying, and then for a long time it was unifying, and then it was deciding the issue of a single candidate, and then the authorities did not register the candidate (Rustam Ibragimbekov), and the opposition had to decide again whether to nominate a single candidate, or to go for the elections separately. And, again, a waste of time. And, yet, despite the limitation of time, lack of resources, lack of promotion opportunities on television and the mass media that were totally under the control of the government, nevertheless, the opposition and especially Hasanli could seriously threaten the authorities, and generate new moods in the society. From this perspective, Hasanli achieved a moral victory. But, the situation in the country is not limited to only elections. In this regard, the question whether the opposition and, personally, Hasanli can maintain the benchmark, is important. This is a serious question. This is today’s the most important question.
– Azerbaijan’s opposition parties claim that the elections were held in a total fraud, is it possible that dissatisfaction in the society will grow into even greater protests?
– With this regard, the opposition it totally correct, the elections were not free and democratic. On the other hand, even though I mentioned about Hasanli’s moral victory, and about the matters that the fear of the public from the authorities began to melt, nevertheless, it does not stem from this that this fear is gone, or is reaching greater sizes. No, the fear from the authorities is still keeping many people in captive, and therefore I do not expect serious political protests from the public.
– And after the re-election of Ilham Aliyev, can changes happen in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy priorities?
– No. There can be no changes here; everything will remain the same as before. It is possible that some changes will arise outside the sector, but they will not be connected to election results, other factors will play a role there.
– It would be the most advantageous for Armenia if the acting President Ilham Aliyev wins the elections, stated Serzh Sargsyan on August 17. A month later, on September 11, Ilham Aliyev, however, countered the statement. “The more current authorities and Serzh Sargsyan remain in power, the sooner we will liberate our lands, because that man and his people lead Armenia to destruction.” Mr. Yunusov, does anyone in Azerbaijan believe that Aliyev’s power is able to resolve the Karabakh conflict peacefully, by mutual concessions?
– Even in the best times, when Ilham Aliyev just coming to power had the reputation of a “young reformer”, even then many people of Azerbaijani society were thinking that what you have lost during the war can not be brought back peacefully, and the supporters of the war, even ten years ago, were much more. But, at that time, there were also those who believed in the possibility of peaceful settlement of the conflict, as well as they believed in Ilham Aliyev and his promises. Today, they are mostly disappointed, too. And, it’s no coincidence that during TV debates even the ruling candidates were only talking about the military way of returning Karabakh, and the only difference between them laid in details.
In other words, on the one hand, the number of those in the society who believe in the possibility of a peaceful settlement of the conflict has drastically reduced. This is an objective fact related to the lack of specific results of the negotiations under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group. On the other hand, many people stopped believing Ilham Aliyev’s statements, including that he would begin military operations. In other words, the number of those who believe that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will not be solved at all under Ilham Aliyev’s ruling, and the society will be continued to be fed with promises has sharply increased.
Emma GABRIELYAN
