According to political scientist Armen Grigoryan, Armenia will lose the ability to make decisions independently regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement process.
– The authorities of Armenia, in the face of Deputy Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, note that the Association Agreement will remain in the EU-Armenia dialogue, and the official Yerevan is working on “legally repairing” the document. What opportunities do you see with the EU Association process to continue?
– Since September 3, there are processes going on that exclude the possibility of signing the Association Agreement. Until then, Armenia, along with Georgia and Moldova, had the same level of relations with the EU. Thus, the Armenia-EU relations could be reached a qualitatively higher level than the Azerbaijan-EU relations, which would have a positive impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement and democratization processes. Now, maximum, a declaration of declarative nature may be signed.
– On October 24, Armenia agreed to be abstained from any statement or action contrary to the interests of the Customs Union, which was endorsed in the memorandum on deepening of the relations between Armenia and the Eurasian Economic Commission, signed in Minsk. What are the implications of the aforesaid obligation for Armenia in the correlations with other countries?
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– This issue a kind of covered the previous question. The commitment assumed on October 24 also excludes the possibility of signing the Association Agreement. First of all, joining CU excludes the possibility of having a free trade agreement with a country which is not a CU member. There might occur complications related to freight rates and other issues. In addition, it will be decided in Russia what an “action contrary to the interests of the Customs Union” means, in other words, Armenia’s sovereignty becomes even more limited. The most dangerous matter is that negative changes can occur in the relations with Iran and Georgia. And, at the same time, Customs Union members do not assume any obligation to be abstained from the actions contrary to the interests of Armenia.
– In general, what prospects and objective does Russia’s recent intensive integration policies pursue? What impact might the Russian integration processes have in Armenia?
– Russia pursues imperialistic, colonial objectives, and at the same time, V. Putin is trying to strengthen his personal power. A few weeks ago, the Government of Russia decided to cut budget expenditures by 5 percent, moreover, drastic reductions are foreseen in education, health and social sectors, while the military and propaganda expenditures will increase. We need also to keep in mind that the U.S. is reducing the imports of oil, and soon it will begin exporting gas to Europe, and some European countries are getting ready for shale gas industry. Given that Russia’s export of energy carriers provide more than half of the budget of Russia, significant decline is very likely, and V. Putin is trying to strengthen his regime by all means: censorship, control over e-messages, extraordinarily cynical propaganda, strengthening of black-hundredists of orthodoxy, and so on, and, of course, a
“land collection,” creation of an updated version of the Soviet Union. Russia-centered integration process for Armenia is more dangerous, because Armenia will lose the ability of making decisions on their own on foreign policy; it will stop being a subject in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement and in the area of international relations, in general, and can become the subject of regular Russian-Turkish transaction, or be used for other purposes incurred from interests of Russia. Generally, joining the Customs Union is a de facto annexation for Armenia.
– Along with the establishment of the Eurasian Union, Russia is taking steps to control the military facilities of the post-Soviet states, recently announced the CSTO Secretary General Nickolay Borduja. There were publications in the media that the RF is strengthening the military base in Gyumri. Is there a risk for Armenia in the context of Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation on Karabakh issue?
– Really, there are publications that the RF is going to deploy helicopter and landing divisions, probably, again at the expense of Armenian taxpayers. According to Russian experts, this will enable Russian South Caucasian military troops to conduct not only defensive but also offensive nature of operations. A question arises, against whom? To the point, still a month and a half ago, I have predicted the possibility of strengthening the presence of Russian military in Armenia, and then increasing the pressure over Georgia, and even the aggression. Ultimately, Russia should try to prevent the continuation of the process of Georgia’s European integration, which will enable to control over the entire South Caucasus region. In addition, it is vital for Russia to establish control over the pipelines to provide the price rise of energy carriers, and to maintain its own survival.
As for the Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation, indeed, the large-scale supply of up-to-date weapons by Armenia’s ‘ally’ is even more disturbing. Especially when Azerbaijan is openly threatening the security of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. For comparison: South Korea refused to sell weapons to Azerbaijan, even though the matter was about the weapons that could not be used against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. There are also other hazards in the context of Russia-Azerbaijan, as well as Russian-Turkish cooperation with regard to vassal status of Armenia and the possibility of becoming a subject of transaction.
Emma GABRIELYAN
