Moscow is trying to keep the efforts of the latest activation of the negotiation round in “circumference” of its influence
Regional visit of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs commenced from Baku since Monday. Yesterday, the co-chairs were in Yerevan. At the meeting with RA Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, co-chairs presented him the impressions of meetings in Baku. Nalbandian drew the attention of co-chairs on recent frequent violations of the ceasefire by Azerbaijan and continual statements voiced in Baku distorting the essence and nature of the negotiation process, emphasizing that they cause damage in moving the peaceful process forward. The co-chairs also meet with Serzh Sargsyan; they have discussed issues related to the current stage of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict negotiation process and further steps.
At a briefing with the journalists, in response to the questions of the “Liberty” r/s what the reason is that after the interval of nearly two years, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet, Igor Popov said that the issue of the meeting between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan was also talked about at the debates held in Baku. “In response to your question as to why the presidents intend to meet, I will answer the following, you knew that the contacts at the level of ministers of foreign affairs were proceeding for about two years, various options of moving forward were elaborated. Now, in our opinion, which is basically shared by the ministers of foreign affairs, it is time to hold a high-level meeting, to the so-called correct the watches, clarify positions and decide on how to work in the future.”
After the meeting of I. Aliyev and the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, Popov told that it was planned to hold the meeting with the presidents by the end of the year. Popov stressed that Aliyev has agreed on holding a meeting with the presidents.
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The purpose of the regional visit of Co-chairs, thus, was the organizations of holding a meeting with the presidents, and if it is managed to hold it until the end of the year, it would mean that after Ramil Safarov submission, basically, ultimately a meeting was organized at the presidential level under the regulation process appeared in the deadlock.
In fact, it is remarkable that before holding of the meeting, Baku has already started the “reinforcement” of its position. At the meeting with co-chairs, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov demanded explanations from Russian co-chair Igor Popov regarding the statement of # 102 Russian military commander located in Gyumri that in case of using the force from Azerbaijan to Nagorno-Karabakh, the Russian military base may be involved in military operations. Hasanov has said that an official response is required to this statement, and the Russian co-chair did not rule out that the issue might have raised in the result of misunderstanding, and promised to “deal with this issue.”
In recent days, the shootings released by Azerbaijani side toward Armenia have become frequent, Tavush bordering settlements and interstate strategic roads of military significance are bombarded. This, perhaps, is a tool applied by Baku before the negotiations to present complaints and new
requirements towards the development of issues for reduction of tension and confidence building in the contact zone. But, Moscow for whatever purpose, seems has started to run a campaign of scaring the partied by Nagorno-Karabakh war. Definitely having its own calculations, Moscow is trying to keep the efforts of the latest activation of the negotiation round in “circumference” of its influence, probably, also reducing the chances of progress and peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict by the West.
Yesterday, a Russian political commentator Maksim Shevchenko, in the interview with an Azerbaijani media, addressing the perspective of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, noted that the paradox is that some issues can not be resolved without military intervention, and, therefore, it is necessary to form an equivalent alliance, who are interested in the resolution. “The U.S. and EU mediation is just extending the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This conflict would be solved faster at the regional level, but the U.S., the EU and Israel would not allow it.” According to the commentator, the regional platforms are: RF, Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia. “Superstars can look from the side, but the last 20 years have shown that the U.S. and the EU have failed to solve the issue of returning the Azerbaijani lands to them, they were not even able to return 5 occupied territories of Azerbaijan,” said the outstanding representative of government propaganda machine, adding that entering into the CU will also contribute to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Interesting ideas were recently voiced by # 102 Russian military base commander located in Armenia. In the interview to the Russian Defense Ministry official bulletin “Krasnaya zvezda” (literally “Red Star”), Colonel Andrei Ruzinsky noted that if the Azerbaijani leadership makes a decision on restoring the powers over Nagorno-Karabakh by use of force, # 102 military base located in Armenia can be involved in armed conflict, pursuant to the commitments assumed by Russia in the framework of CSTO. Ruzinsky stated that the Russian military base located in Armenia is in a state of constant readiness, and expressed his conviction that the forces of the military base will solve the challenges facing them.”The military base is composed of 13 units. The Russian military base located in Armenia includes а division consisting of C-300 type of zenith rocket complexes, а division consisting of БУК-М1-2 type of zenith rocket complexes, а Smerch type rocket artillery battery complexes, and an Air Force base consisting of МиГ-29 type of fighters,” said Ruzinsky.
One gets the impression that the west-north “struggle” is slowly moving to the “front” of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But, this “struggle” could hardly lead to a conflict settlement. Even in this case, it is a race of interests and influences. It remains to hope that it will not turn into a new cycle of escalation in the conflict zone.
Emma GABRIELYAN
