Which option will Russia choose today with regard to Nagorno-Karabakh
After being re-elected for the post of the president, on November 12, Ilham Aliyev, made his first official visit to Turkey. While people were celebrating the Constitution Day in Azerbaijan, Turkish President Abdullah Gül awarded Aliyev with a State Medal of Turkey. At the meeting with Turkish and Azerbaijani Presidents, the sides stressed that the relationships between the two countries are based on strategic partnership and are successfully development in political, economic, energy and other fields. Gül and Aliyev discussed a number of regional issues, including the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. During the days of Aliyev’s visit, surely, not coincidentally, the information about regular ‘efforts’ Turks regarding the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict popped up in the Turkish press. According to ‘Today’s Zaman’ newspaper, Turkey applied to Switzerland for this country to mediate in the Karabakh conflict settlement, which will create an opportunity to restore the relations of Ankara with Yerevan. It appears that in mid-October, during the visit to Switzerland, Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu has told the Swiss authorities that Turkey to going to regulate its relations with Armenia, but he certainly made them realize that in doing this Armenia needs to “free the occupied territories of Azerbaijan”, only after that Ankara will open the border with Armenia. “We are looking forward to your support in persuading the authorities of Armenia,” said Davutoğlu, and Swiss diplomats, according to the Turkish newspaper, responded Davutoğlu’s proposal positively. The latter also assured that Turkey will try to find new ideas to record a progress in the problem resolution, and will further activate the work. The anonymous source of MFA conveyed the newspaper that Turkey intends to normalize its relations with Armenia by 2015, when the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide will be marked. In recent days, rumors are persistently circulated that Azerbaijan will be not against opening of the border with Armenia by Turkey, if Armenian side “leaves the occupied territories.” The official Yerevan has responded to the “information” of Turkish newspaper. As conveyed by “Armenpress”, Armenia’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Tigran Balayan said that “stupid publications of invented sources do not have to be commented.” Turkey-Azerbaijan “brotherly” relations and agreed position are not news in the matter of Nagorno-Karabakh. Similar “information” are not also unexpected, publications of anonymous sources in Turkish press, they are repeatedly put to action for years during convenient occasions. More remarkable was the moment chosen for popping up of this information, and, of course, the objective. And the phase chosen for the Turkish-Azerbaijani propaganda “effort”, surely, is not accidental. On November 22, the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdoğan will made an official visit to Russia. Recently, the representative of the Turkish Embassy to Moscow said that a number of ministers along with Erdoğan will visit Russia and currently the itinerary of the visit is in the process of arrangement. As stated earlier, the Russia’s Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Meshkov stated that late in the fall it is planned to hold Russo-Turkish High-Level Cooperation Council meeting, which will be attended by the President of Russia Vladimir Putin and the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdoğan, who would sum up the past year cooperation between the two countries and discuss development prospects. In other words, Azerbaijan and Turkey has passed to traditional propaganda pressing before upcoming Russian-Turkish negotiations, as well as before Serzh Sargsyan-Ilham Aliyev meeting planned on November. But, the behavior of the Kremlin in this situation would be more interesting. The behavior of Russia’s authorities is worthy of consideration because the very strong pressures towards the former Soviet republics against deepening the relations with the EU are so pronounced that there are no grounds to think that as of today Russia can miss the chance of demonstrating its influence. Moreover, Armenian reality has already set up an environment that all the critical issues regarding Armenia can be resolved only with our “security” ensuring Russia. Thus, no matter how cynical it may sound, Ankara in the same spirit as it asked the Swiss authorities to intervene in the conflict, so will remind the Russian authorities about the ‘demands’ favorable for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The fact that the immediate settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not an issue of vital importance for Russia, and Moscow is more interested in preservation of its influence in the region, has been said over the years, but even under these conditions, it is difficult to predict which option today’s Russia will choose: the peaceful settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the military actions, or preservation of influence under the conditions of maintaining status quo.
Emma GABRIELYAN
