Which political force would be a suitable “opposition” for Serzh Sargsyan?
Both interviews of Robert Kocharyan became an opportunity of discussing possible rearrangements in the government, the possibility of nominating Kocharyan for the position of prime minister.
However, the matter of maturation of “worthy” opposition in the second phase of Serzh Sargsyan ruling is also important, to whom it is not ruled out that Serzh Sargsyan may hand over the power as a result of next presidential elections.
The representatives of parliamentarian opposition political parties expressed their views on Kocharian’s possible return. Some considered the views of the estimates submitted by Kocharyan consistent with parliamentary forces, and some refused to consider these interviews as a claim of returning to active politics, though Kocharyan, personally, did not even try to rule it out in his interviews.
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One gets the impression that to possess the laurels of opposition leader, there will be a battle between PAP and ANC, although these forces, including the ARF and “Heritage” are taking actions to jointly come up on different issues.
Kocharyan’s interviews, somehow messed up the playing cards of the players in the opposition. Now, it seems that the matter of defining the opposition “core” has raised. Until now, the ANC believed that the main core of the opposition is the ANC, and everyone should unite around it. It can be assumed that the PAP is likely to have similar ambitions in the future and voice them. We can not rule out that as a result of Kocharyan’s interviews when, in a process of time, PAP makes its positive attitude towards Kocharyan more pronounced, and PAP-ANC warm relations become intense, in other words, when it becomes apparent that PAP is “choosing” Kocharyan rather than Ter-Petrosyan.
This is about possible developments in opposition… Also, it is important to what extent given fight in opposition may be advantageous to Serzh Sargsyan, in other words, whom Serzh Sargsyan would prefer to be “worthy” opposition.
Hardly to the ANC. The most suitable “opposition” for Serzh Sargsyan can be Kocharyan-PAP “core”. Such program, of course, in its turn, may attest to the fact that such a scenario is designed in Baghramyan 26, in the very Baghramyan 26, whom the most criticizing parties were detaching from them and put the formula “consensus minus Serzh Sargsyan” into action.
To put it more simply, the opposition is most likely to appear in “no better than at start”, because if the reproduction of authorities for Serzh Sargsyan’s ruling can be realized through Kocharyan and PAP, it would mean that the “alternative” PAP, which has not only been detached from the ruling pyramid, but not becoming a real opposition, intends to come to power.
So, in this situation, the political arena seems to increasingly becoming mined for the opposition, whose each careless move, the struggle for the opposition “core” may be over for some, staying beyond the margin of political process.
In other words, the risk is great that the opposition, also being unwittingly involved in Baghramyan 26 project, will work against itself, falling into the trap.
Emma Gabrielyan
