“Even the most prestigious institutions can not afford to predict their economic development with this kind of jewelry accuracy based on one factor, – so replied Tatul Manaseryan, economist, director of “Alternative” Research Center, to the question of Aravot.am whether it is not exaggerated that the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) Integration Research Center predicts that if Armenia joins the Customs Union, Armenia’s GDP will growth by an additional 4 percent per year.
He noted that joining the Customs Union “no matter how important it is for the economic development of Armenia cannot be the most decisive factor” and continued, “We can treat the prediction of such clear numbers, let me say, with a little bit reservation. To the best, Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union may be the only factorial analysis as to which sectors of the economy of Armenia it may affect, what and how, what trends can be recorded. Moreover, the decision has not yet been accepted, and the negotiations regarding the terms are not completed, too.”
Mr. Manaseryan noted that researches are conducted by the Center, and in contrast to the foreign companies, their cognitive level about the economic situation in Armenia is higher, because they are dealing with the reality of economy of Armenia on daily basis.
Mr. Manaseryan said that given the situation, they have developed scenarios as to under which situation the economy can develop.
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In the conversation with Mr. Manaseryan, we quoted the section of the Eurasian Development Bank studies, where a comparison is made with the situation, which could be recorded if Armenia had signed the EU Association Agreement. To this respect, the economist said the following, “I have a great desire to meet with the authors of the analysis, and these people should convince me and you as the RA citizens that they have sufficient grounds to make such predictions. We can say different numbers that are anonymous and with assumptions taken from here and there. Hence, I treat these figures with reservation and great suspicion. Moreover, as an Armenian economist, who has not made the last contribution to this country in terms of economic analysis, can not reserve the right to make such clear and definitive predictions.”
Mr. Manaseryan stressed that it is more difficult to make predictions for 2014, and said, “Even Solomon the Wise cannot make predictions for this year.” Mr. Manaseryan said that he can distinctly say that despite Armenia does not use the potential properly, however, Armenia is still maintaining the ability of registering a double-digit economic growth in annual terms. If we have the opportunity to lead and manage the economy, then we assure you that we can have a surplus of jobs.”
In summary, the economist said, “Research performer should first reckon with reality, to see what is going on in Armenia, starting from a competitive field, economic governance. Otherwise, anyone can make predictions even while playing backgammon, the only difference is that the name of one is the European Union and the name of the other – Karapet”.
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
Photo by Olga Tretyakova
