According to Davit Shahnazaryan, cohesion of the West and adherence to principles of position will be decisive in upcoming developments
On March 4, during the discussion of developments in Ukraine at the “Media Center”, David Shahnazaryan, Head of the RA National Security Service for the period of 1994-1995, Ambassador of RA President’s Special Envoy for the period of 1992-1995, expressed an opinion, “Russia has issued a challenge not only to the international community but also the existing world order. Russia is trying to impose its own rules. The effects, obviously, are going to be very hard and strategically disastrous for Russia. The response that is displayed by the West is unprecedented in recent years. Whether it is sufficient or not, it seems to me that it will be clear in the next 72 hours.”
Anyway, later, on the same day, in the UN Security Council debate, after stormy unprecedented intimidation by the West for imposing sanctions against Russia, as well as the estimates voiced at the Russian president’s press conference, it left the impression that the West and Russia, however, are trying to come to some agreement, given the fact that Putin announced, “there is no necessity for Russian troops to enter Ukraine.”
To the observation of Aravot of whether Russia and the West will come to a common denominator, Davit Shahnazaryan noted, “On March 4, in the morning, Putin abruptly brought the large-scale military exercises to halt and ordered the Russian armed forces to go back to barracks, after which he presented in the press conference. If we remove the propaganda and rhetoric addressed to the Russian audience, we can state that on March 4, Vladimir Putin, in fact, delivered the following remarks to the authorities of the West and Ukraine, exclusion of RF invasion in the eastern territories of Ukraine, exclusion of increasing the number of Russian troops in the Crimea, Russia will honor the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, according to which Ukraine’s territorial integrity must be maintained, Russia has already started and will work with the current Ukrainian authorities, Russia will accept the upcoming election results to be held in Ukraine on May 25, and Russia’s Black Sea fleet Sevastopol base should be maintained.”
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Davit Shahnazaryan believes that Putin’s aforementioned remarks, perhaps, would be discussed by the West, as well as the current Ukrainian authorities, if they are presented (maybe already presented) as recommendations in public or non-public format.
“Putin’s this global adventure was a challenge to Western civilization,” noted Davit Shahnazaryan, adding that Putin has acknowledged that with his geopolitical adventurism he had defeated and now will try to save his face.
“Putin, in particular, will try to negotiate, to achieve certain increase in the degree of autonomy of the Crimea, he will also try to achieve adoption of the Constitution of Ukraine, the Ukrainian regions receive greater autonomy, governors be elected with direct elections, which he will try to introduce as a federalization of Ukraine. Putin will try to associate his objectives with gradual withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied Crimea,” said Davit Shahnazaryan.
To summarize recent developments in Ukraine, Davit Shahnazaryan added, “The tension seems to be slightly reduced, but nothing still can be ruled out, and new exacerbations are also more likely. Everything will depend on cohesion of the West and adherence to principles of the position. However, regardless of everything, it is obvious that the effect for Russia will be hard enough: the loss of Russia’s image, which is already an undeniable fact, a risk for international isolation, imposition of certain sanctions by the West, as well as suspended member to G8, and most importantly, collapse of Putin’s and his administration’s image, and the most serious economic and political problems within the country.”
Emma GABRIELYAN
