After the developments in Ukraine, a new geopolitical situation has been established. The political reshuffle received a new look after Crimea expressed a desire to join Russia. In this case, in what situation has Armenia appeared, and what possible challenges is our country facing, especially given the fact that the Karabakh conflict is not yet resolved? Ara Papyan, the Head of “Modus Vivendi” center, is concerned that “there would be pressure from Russia to Armenia with urging to recognize Crimea.” Ara Papyan does not also rule out this scenario, “If Russia offers us to send a symbolic battalion to Crimea, what should we do?” The political analyst notes that after the developments in Ukraine, Russia now is more weakened, which is the result of Russia’s strategic errors. “I’m not predicting a bright future for Russia. Russia did a strategic error, it tried to oppose the West, but obviously the powers are unequal. In the result of such policy led by Russia, Europe feels itself more and more akin and submissive to the U.S., which is not desirable for us.” To the question of Aravot.am of whether Armenia will again be imposed to pressure by Russia, this time in the form of coercion of recognizing the independence of Crimea. Political analyst Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan answered, “This kind of thing will not happen. Although Russia was interested in many states to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and Ossetia, however it did not happen. Even if there was a pressure, nevertheless, it was not made towards Armenia. Armenia was guided by its own interests. The issue of independence of Crimea as such is not set forth. Crimea trends and objectives are different. Crimea tries to become a political entity constituting a part of Russia. Hence, we need to be intended to waiting for such pressures to wait for such a thing.” To our observation that perhaps Russia will used the Karabakh conflict to go for this kind of pressure, Mr. Melik-Shahnazaryan responded, “Even if it were true in theory, if Russia was intended to make such a move, and if it was not done for Abkhazia and Ossetia, nothing is changed for the case of Crimea, we will have the same outcome.” According to the political analyst, Armenia’s current neutral position is the best option, and the “remarks presented by the President Serzh Sargsyan in Dublin put Armenia in an advantageous situation”.
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
