Is Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan consolidation taking place?
On April 4, PAP leader Gagik Tsarukyan, in his interview with Zham.am, expressed a remarkable idea, “An opportunity is created to go in the right direction, to review a number of important issues and approaches without having shocks, and to accept own shortcomings. But all of these is constitutionally vested with the majority. And I will refrain from further detailing.”
Since then, it has become evident that the PAP has again entered into the phase of discussing the opportunities of returning to the coalition from the “alternative” and to form a national accord government. In other words, the activities of the “magnificent four” contributed to the fact that the two political forces: PAP and ARF, leaving the coalition for some reason, will return to power with their larger ambitions. In short, the grounds of political “consolidation” are put around Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan.
And the only result of “bourgeois-democratic revolution”, actually, was the fact that Tigran Sargsyan was “withdrawn” from the government pyramid, it’s true, not arbitrary, but the important thing here is the process of “being detached from the pyramid”, and now Tigran Sargsyan is likely to be replaced by a more acceptable candidate for the “magnificent four”, more honest and intellectual figure, who will “fill in our budget” and will finally put the country “on the rails.”
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Moreover, the ANC can even be proud of the opportunities created for this political rearrangement. For the ally PAP, vast opportunities will be created to solve all problems that the country faces with “acceptable prime minister”. To present the claim, there will be no need to hold rallies, at least two political parties from the “magnificent four”, as advocate of “systemic changes”, would already, as they say, know their task within the government: where to start and how.
Given the recent PAP members’ statements, we can assume that in the coming days RPA and PAP would come to an agreement. Whether they will come to a common agreement with regard to the prime minister, or whether PAP members will have ministerial portfolios or not, the political processes after Tigran Sargsyan’s resignation will lead to the process of conducting the second phase of Serzh Sargsyan’s term in a more relaxed atmosphere. It is possible that with current political rearrangements, already with “no shocks”, the grounds for the change of government are set for 2018, but even if the PAP and ARF did not unite around Serzh Sargsyan, they as “oppositionists” would not be perceived by the public, no matter what PR was conducted for the “magnificent four”.
However, with a heavy heart, I should also state that there is no opposition in Armenia, and if the PAP and ARF constitute a part of the government, then the government will have to reserve “Heritage” and the ANC left out from the political rearrangement the role of the “opposition”, because the government needs at least a parliamentary opposition for “completeness” of the political system. Interparliamentary cooperation and even sometimes voiced sharply statements and estimates would provide a desired performance for the criticized government. This means that the “Heritage” and the ANC, unwittingly or wittingly, would constitute a part to the enhancement of current political system, because there is no future beyond this system, because they do not enjoy the public confidence.
The recent political rearrangements are not associated with the society. In our country, the opposition had only a few times opportunity to influence the political processes with public support and full confidence, which they failed and probably not because of the fault of the opposition. But what happened later, already with regard to selection of means for political activities and survival, then once oppositions are fully responsible here and today they receive what they deserve.
And, in the end… Serzh Sargsyan seems is not a bad chess player.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
