If Serzh Sargsyan has already chosen his successor
Yesterday, after the prime minister’s resignation, the “non-government” forces of the Parliament, so to say, experienced a second shock. Serzh Sargsyan delivered a new surprise to them, the draft on the Concept Paper of RA Constitutional Amendments emerged, on the threshold of the scheduled meeting with the Parliamentary forces at the Presidential office.
Yesterday, the President of the Republic of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan held a meeting with the members of the Specialized Commission for Constitutional Amendments adjunct to the RA President. It became known that preliminary draft on the Concept Paper of the Constitutional Amendments should enter a mandatory public discussion period. Yesterday, the President of the Constitutional Court Gagik Harutyunyan mentioned that in this period they did not intend to form common and final points of view on all the issues.
At the meeting with the members of the Specialized Commission for Constitutional Amendments, Serzh Sargsyan, referring to the forms of the government, first expressed the opinion that he considers the present form of government more acceptable, however, he added that the issue raised by the Specialized Commission, should become, inter alia, a matter of public discussions. “It is important to take into account the fact that the positions of our country’s political forces should not be ignored or unappreciated while assessing the issues of political importance.” Then, Serzh Sargsyan made the “first step” to set up the discussion on the constitutional amendments in a free vein, declaring, “… I, Serge Sargsyan, will never more seek nomination for the position of the President of the Republic of Armenia. If the concluding discussions would result in a path to be chosen not coinciding with my own vision, and by this I refer to the parliamentary model of government, I will neither display any claim on the position of Prime Minister. I strongly believe that one person should not pretend on the helm of the state in Armenia for more than two times in his lifetime. I am the leader of Armenia’s largest political force – the Republican Party of Armenia – and whatever the constitutional arrangements we adopt, the Republican Party of Armenia will abide to play by those rules remaining a decisive and vital actor in Armenia.”
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One can assume that the public discussions on the Concept Paper in participation with experts, representatives of civil society and political parties, will be extended for a long time. If everything goes well, in the end of 2015 or in the beginning of 2016, it will enter a referendum. Before that, until July 1 of this year, the Commission working on the constitutional amendments should present the the final version of the Concept Paper on the Constitutional Amendments to the president, which after being signed by the president, the package of the amendments should be prepared within ten months, pass a phase of discussions and expertise examination, and most likely in the end of 2015 or at the latest in 2016, it will be put to a referendum.
In other words, prior to the appointment of the new prime minister, by the Concept Paper on the Constitutional Amendments, it is suggested to make a transition into a parliamentary government system, in the result of which, the president becomes a symbolic official, as the real power belongs to the prime minister, whose position will be taken by the representative of parliamentary majority.
The president of the Republic of Armenia is elected by the National Assembly from non-partisan candidates for the term of seven years without the right to be reelected. The president elected by such procedure will have the opportunity to fully assume all functions typical to above-partisan president. The prime minister takes his office as a result of parliamentary elections, the government is formed by the prime minister and is accountable only to the National Assembly. The National Assembly as a legislative power will provide supervision over the supreme body of executive power, the government, while the president of the Republic will keep track to the preservation of the rules by the legislature and executive body provided for by the Constitution. To effectively solve the above-mentioned tasks, this system should assume the presence of a stable parliamentary majority for the head of the executive power. This system:
a) will have a single executive power led by the prime minister, without the risk of dualistic executive power, especially in such vital areas of the country as foreign policy, national security and defense;
b) cannot have a confrontation between the parliament and the president, because the president of the country will be an impartial non-partisan arbitrator;
c) the risk of appearing “random” people to power and super-personification of power will radically fall, because only the leader of the strongest and socially acceptable political party may become a prime minister;
d) there will be no super-concentration of the power in the hands of the head of the executive power, not having adequate political responsibility before the Parliament;
e) the political responsibility of the government before the Parliament shall promote to the collegial governance;
f) the political role of the Parliament shall increase, as legislature so as control body, in which the role of the opposition shall be significantly enhanced;
g) enhancement of the political role of the Parliament will contribute to the implementation of functions by the parties and the gradual establishment of classical bipolar political system in the country;
Pertaining to Serzh Sargsyan’s statements made yesterday, one can conclude the following: he is not interested in the position of the president in the status of the Queen of England. Pertaining to the topic of possible prime minister, he spoke with “if”, “If the concluding discussions would result in a path to be chosen not coinciding with my own vision, and by this I refer to the parliamentary model of government.”
In addition, if Serzh Sargsyan, with disclosure of the recent surprise, has already chosen his successor in mind, it would mean that the constitutional amendments are aimed at preservation of the ruling system in the event of Serzh Sargyan’s envisaged successor, about which he, of course, may also agree with “non-government” forces.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
