There is still hope that Armenia will be included in the list of the founders of the Eurasian Union
Today, the RA Minister of Economy confirmed that Armenia’s Customs Union agreement signing is schedules for April 29. Initially, the haste of Armenia’s accession to this Union was explained by the prospect of becoming a founding member of the Eurasian Union. However, Armenia did not participate in recent developments and meetings in the process of establishment of the Eurasian Union. In Armenia’s political arena, even alerts were heard that they lied to us again. Recently, such concerns were raised by the former RA Foreign Minister Alexander Arzumanyan.
In the interview with “Aravot”, referring to these concerns, the Head of Political Studies Department of “Caucasus” Institute Sergey Minasyan said that at this moment we still cannot be sure whether Armenia will remain out of the list of the founders of the Eurasian Union. If Armenia signs this document on April 29, its ratification in the parliament will last few months, and perhaps, already in the fall, Armenia would have its legal status in the quartet of the Eurasian Union like others. The political scientist believes that if by that phase there be new documents by this trio, then it’s worth of concerning about. Yet. “At this point, including in the context of crisis in Ukraine, it’s hard to say whether we will have acceleration in the process of Eurasian Union, or vice versa, because both Belarus and Kazakhstan are quite cautiously estimating the processes taking place in Ukraine, and Russia’s involvement in this case,” said our interlocutor.
To the observation of whether Armenia is not cautions about the developments in Ukraine, our interlocutor disagreed. Moreover, he believes that Armenia displayed quite cautious approach to the issue, and September 3 statement is just the result of it. “People in Armenia very clearly remember the years of 1920’s and early 1990’s – the USSR involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, mainly by Azerbaijani side. Perhaps, these factors played a role. It’s another matter that in September 3 it seemed to have more preventive approach, at this point it seems more accurate. But I clearly remember how it was perceived in the political and public arena. But, maybe, Armenia’s political leadership then had assessments of the situational, therefore it went for this move.” The political scientist is not actually sure that currently we have any alternative. He believes that we need to understand that after Ukraine, in what format the Eastern Partnership will be or what will happen, in general. Although in cases of Moldova and Georgia, the EU Association Agreement terms are close, but still it is not clear whether Ukraine will eventually sign it or not. And most importantly, Sergey Minasyan considers that “after Ukrainian crisis, the voices heard from some European capitals” prove about the change in EU approach. With replacing “either-or” by “and-and”, according to our interlocutor, the EU at least will not lose Armenia and some other countries if Russia continues the CU process. “Therefore, many things will already become clear in the coming weeks,” concluded Sergey Minasyan.
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The Head of “Integration and Development” NGO Aram Safaryan noted that a year ago when his organization was substantiating by various researches the economic and social necessity to join the CU, Armenia had a problem with developing a political position and justifying it, but when negotiations commenced, he and his partners were surprised, because they were moving quite rapidly, and the public was unaware. Our interlocutor considers it one of the core drawbacks of governance headed by Tigran Sargsyan. Aram Safaryan hopes that this gap will be completed in the conformity phase of documents.
“The sociological polls showed that our citizens above 40 years of age are mostly in favor of merging the relations with Russia, than those under 28 years old. So, we need to work with young people to have an adequate treatment. However, this does not mean to push the lie into the true heads. On the contrary, our advantages – security, social, political, and economic development-related issues, should be made a subject for public discussion. The CU experience has shown that prior to accession to the CU, a larger percentage of population in Kazakhstan and Belarus were in favor of integration. Later, when the integration processes were underway, the number of supporters reduced in five-fold percent. This process can have a continuous tendency, if the leaders of integrated countries fail to smooth down and normalize the situation through negotiations,” said our interlocutor.
To the question of whether the establishment of Eurasian and Customs Unions does not incur from Ukraine’s political instability, which seems to have a long-term tendency, our interlocutor said that the calendar schedule of the road map initiated by these unions, at least, contains no changes.” At the same time, it is obvious that the pressures implemented by Europe and the West over Russia may be stimulating for the rapid development of integration processes in the post-Soviet territory, because thus the opportunity of developing the internal market will be compensated,” opines Aram Safaryan, nevertheless, he does not consider the existence of preventive measures and the developments in this context positive.
NELLY GRIGORYAN
P. S. The article was already written when it became known that Armenia might not sign the Customs Union accession document, and immediately sign the agreement on accession to the Eurasian Economic Union. This statement was announced at yesterday’s press conference by acting Minister of Economy Vahram Avanesyan and his first deputy Karine Minasyan. The acting Minister of Economy stated that signing the document on Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union is not schedules for April 29, and that false information was spread by his fault. On April 25, the working group meeting preparing for Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union will be held, which will sum up the negotiation process and the results will be presented in the upcoming Minsk Summit of Presidents of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan – at the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council session, on April 29. It is expected that the session will also be attended by the President of Armenia.
