According to the expert of the Armenian Center for Democracy, Security and Development, Marta Ayvazyan, Russia will use Armenia at any time as a coin in its political games.
– The RA authorities were assuring that no checkpoint can be installed between the Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, but last week it became known that Armenia would be signing the treaty to join the Eurasian Union by July 1, should Armenia agree with the condition put forward by a founding member of the Union, President of Kazakhstan. Armenia should join the Eurasian Union with the UN-recognized borders, without Nagorno-Karabakh. How do you explain the fact that the interests of Azerbaijan, which are not associated with the Eurasian Union, are more consistently protected by this union?
– The matter that by joining the CU, Armenia, permanently deprived of the opportunity to conduct an independent foreign policy, will at least lose its economic ties with NK with installation of the checkpoint or otherwise, was clear from the outset. Recall Russian officials’ voiced opinions and positions to this respect, and I am confident that the RA authorities were well aware of it. Maybe it was a surprise for them of how this requirement was put forward, but not its essence. The matter that the relations with Azerbaijan were much more important for Russia, and that Armenia is a reliable partner for Russia and at all times Russia is only pursuing its national interests, is also not new, and Russia keeps approving this fact. Suffice it to recall the continuous transactions on the same of attacking weapons to Azerbaijan, as well as the form and content of the visit by the President of Russia to Azerbaijan, also numerous statements made by various representatives of the Russian Federation, which evidently prove that Armenia as an independent and sovereign partner state with its own state interest does not exist in the minds of RF authorities, and at any time Russia will use Armenia as a coin in its political games, regardless of the possible consequences for Armenia. On the other hand, Armenia’s accession is not also desirable for Kazakhstan and Belarus, whose relationships with Russia within the CU are quite complex, because Armenia, being Russia’s puppet state, can be used against other CU member states during the decision-making process. In my opinion, this is due to the form of introducing the requirement and publicity of the content of Aliyev’s letter by Nazarbayev. At the same time, under created conditions, an unexpected opportunity is granted to Armenia if not totally refuse the CU membership, then at least to postpone it indefinitely, but whether our authorities would be able to seize this opportunity. This whole situation also leads to another painful conclusion; today, the relations with Armenia are absolutely not important for virtually any state, including the founder state of the European Union.
– RF had completed its supply of 100 T-90C tanks batch to Azerbaijan, supply of the second batch with the same number of tanks to Baku is possible. On May 26, it became also known that Russia is planning to supply another batch of TOS-1A reactive flame-throwers to Azerbaijan. Russia side is introducing the Russian-Azerbaijani military cooperation with several billion dollars as a “commercial transaction.” How should Armenia, as Russia’s strategic partner, display itself under these conditions?
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– In case of willingness and ability, possible displays are vary and are on different dimensions, bilateral and multilateral, from reviewing the terms for deployment of the Russian military base up to enhancement of relations with NATO and signing of similar “commercial transactions” with the member states. Given that this “commercial transactions” under the conditions of unresolved conflict create tension and hinder the peace settlement process that is underway for more than two decades, violates a number of international norms and agreements in principle reached within conflict settlement negotiations, including the UN Security Council Resolutions on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia may also, if not, should, send respective notes of protest to Russian authorities, raise this issue within the UN and the OSCE, demanding that Russia fulfill its international commitments and refrain from supplying weapons to one of the sides in conflict and so on.
– Recently, there are many views voiced that new possibilities for signing the EU Association for are opened up. The French President Hollande, in the framework of his visit to Armenia said that a new version of Association Agreement should be thought for Armenia, which would not prevent the decision to join the Customs Union. Do you see such possibilities? – Association Agreement with a new version that will contain a component of economic cooperation with necessary scope and substantive content, would have practical rather than merely a political significance, and will not obstruct the decision to join the CU, to be more precise, it would be acceptable for the CU, I cannot imagine. Generally, the future development between Armenia and EU is incompatible with the CU membership with desired and practically profitable direction for us, and it will be possible only if Armenia would be able to avoid this structure. As I already mentioned, to avoid the CU, a certain possibility was opened up after the events in Astana. As to the French President’s words, I would assess them more like a political statement, which once again confirms the EU’s desire and willingness to continue the development of cooperation with Armenia in the presence of respective political decision by Armenia and provision of required conditions.
– On June 27, signing of the EU Association Agreement with Georgia is scheduled. Can a dividing line emerge between Armenia and Georgia, given the fact that Russia has increased its military presence in Armenia, and there is a danger for the Russian military base to operate as an obstacle Georgia’s way to the European and Euro-Atlantic integration?
– The dividing line between Georgia and Armenia has emerged a long time ago and is strengthened in concomitant with enhancement of Russia’s dominant role in Armenia and loss of our sovereignty. Today, Armenia, being under the absolute dependence on Russia, serving to Russia’s regional and geopolitical interests, operating in line with them on various international platforms, has turned into a source of instability and possibly a military threat for the states in the region, particularly Georgia. On June 27, the scheduled signing of the EU Association Agreement with Georgia would not the cause of the dividing line, but will give a new institutional format to it.
– Recently, The Sunday Times wrote that NATO may deploy troops in the post-Soviet territories. The NATO member states defense ministers will discuss this issue in the near future. What do you think will the tension in the West-Russia relations mitigate after the presidential elections in Ukraine?
– The tension in the West-Russia relations can be partially mitigated if RF stop its interference in Ukraine’s internal affairs and, in particular, all its actions towards destabilization of the country’s eastern regions and separation of the country. But, even then these relationships will never be the same as they were before the crisis in Ukraine. Russia remains an important partner for the West, but it has become a much more important issue for the West to possibly neutralize and limit expansion of Russia’s neo-imperialistic ambitions and their aggressive actions towards their implementation. Hence, the West will continue operating all, and particularly economic, levers available under its influence against Russia. Development of economic ties with China and other Asian countries, which in its turn is full of numerous risks, can no wise compensate for the losses, which Russia would have as a state, as well as Russia’s political and particularly economic elite in the result of cooling of relations with the West. Moreover, the Eurasian economic cooperation, in its current format, pushed forward by Russia is not promising anymore. As a result, in not so distant future, Russia may face a deep and insurmountable economic crisis without ideological and systemic changes. All of this, in their turn, will cause a domestic political and internal power crisis, and may spur a new wave of social riot against the current authorities and, particularly, the President of Russia, and as a result it may lead to change of power though reshuffling of the power.
EMMA GABRIELYAN
