If we had been convinced that the constitutional amendments would become a reality, we would not write the word “president” in the title but the “prime minister” or another conventional word. Anyhow, at present, the President of Armenia is the one that makes decisions, therefore, we keep writing the “president” in the title.
No matter the first and second presidents complain of the current situation and personally, Serzh Sargsyan, they both have done everything depending on themselves for the president of Armenia to have constitutionally autocratic power.
Last time, we assumed that Armenia’s future first figure, apparently, would be a wealthy person. This idea was in our mind not only due to “political” processes developing in Armenia, but the processes and realities going on in the post-Soviet republics. In our opinion, the current president of Ukraine being a wealthy person is not a coincidence at all. The wealthy Ivanishvili did not become the first figure in Georgia, because so he wanted. He was reluctant to be the first figure and made his man be the first figure. In other words, he dictated the content and course of the events. Such a thing might also happen in Armenia. In the best case. Or, on the contrary, in the worst case. It depends on who it will be and how it will be.
The example of newly elected president of Ukraine also showed that the wealthy in the meantime have understood that it’s better for them to become the first figure rather than appoint their protégé, because the protégé once obtaining power and become rich over the time, one day may become uncontrollable.
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In other words, over time, human and political logic also undergoes changes, and the realities of a country can directly affect the other country’s realities. This refers to the post-Soviet countries and especially and particularly, Armenia, and we are especially and particularly interested and concerned about upcoming events and realities in Armenia, and we especially and particularly are interested in how the first figure would be in Armenia right after Serzh Sargsyan. Whoever it be, Armenia’s imminent future will heavily dependent on him, because life has several times proved us that primarily and basically, the first figure of Armenia is the one that decides everything in Armenia. Some of the opposition consider Serzh Sargsyan a weak president, whereas some consider him a strong dictator. In fact, they oppose to each other, and very often, the same opposition contradicts himself, because very often, the same opposition once considers Serzh Sargsyan a weak president, and another day – a dictator. Let’s agree that the dictator cannot be weak, especially under its own power. Dictators become weak only as a result of revolution and overthrow, when the revolution wins and all the rats without exception leave the ship.
Revolution has not yet been observed in Armenia, and the current Constitution does not provide a chance for the current president to be weak. Nonetheless, many people believe that Robert Kocharyan at the moment has quite big influence, especially on the ruling elite, and many people believe that possibly, Kocharyan who has passed the power to Serzh Sargsyan, by the rule of baton, may return what was passed. In other words, again, it would happen in Armenia what happened in Russia with Putin and Medvedev. Let’s agree that those who think so are not particularly devoid of logic, but also agree that Russia’s and Armenia’s situations and batons are quite different. Let’s not go further into the details on differences because they are too many and too obvious. Yet, we consider it appropriate to mention two of these differences. First, the influence of outside forces are not so great on Russia than on Armenia, especially with regard to presidential election. Secondly, no matter we say that there is no opposition in Armenia, the latter is more functioning factor than in Russia, and if Russia’s opposition is more absent than present during the elections, the existence of the opposition in Armenia’s elections has always been felt, at least at the level of disputing the president’s legitimacy.
In other words, the opposition may somehow prevent the political elite relay race in Armenia. Or, on the contrary, contribute.
One thing, however, the opposition and all we have not finally determined. Are Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan opponents to each other, or, on the contrary, supporters? Perhaps, they also have not finally determined. Because this is also decided by outside of forces and the powerful, moreover, at the last moment. And that is why we nowise are able to comprehend who is whose friend in Armenia’s political arena.
Voskan YEREVANTSY
