ANM Board member, Hovhannes Igityan, thinks that the only party that has a chance to make a change of power in Armenia is Russia
“It is clear that a harsh condition is put forward before Armenia by the founding members of the Eurasian Union, tom install customs checkpoints along the Armenia-Karabakh border. Accordingly, Armenia’s authorities are facing the dilemma of implementing or not, being forced to consider the serious consequences of this-or-that decision made by them, which does not require a great imagination to forecast,” said the ANC leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan, in his last interview, viewing the delay of Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union in the political arena. To the question of “Aravot” whether the matter is purely in the political context, and depends on the decision of RA authorities, PANM Board member, Hovhannes Igityan said that he would not like to consider the question based on the interview of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, since he has been talking about these issues long ago, whereas Levon Ter-Petrosyan is first time trying to analyze. Also, Hovhannes Igityan thinks that Ter-Petrosyan’s leaded party is in favor of Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union, and apparently they regret that Armenian is not yet a member of this Union.
While he, Hovhannes Igityan, is strongly against Armenia’s accession to this structure. “Someone may consider the issue political, but I consider it purely from economic point of view. Armenia with its model does not fit the EEU and all customs liabilities incurred thereof,” said our interlocutor, expressing surprise that many politicians do not follow the change in political situation. “Recall September 2-3, the political situation at that time and the reasons that forced Serzh Sargsyan to go to Moscow and radically change Armenia’s the political course. Four Eastern Partnership countries in Vilnius were going to sign the EU Association Agreement, and Armenia also the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreement. All Russia’s orientation was against Ukraine, and Armenia was used as a small tool to suppress Ukraine, also to fail Vilnius summit. Now there is no Ukraine issue. It is clear that Ukraine will never go for any alliance of Russia, Russia lost Ukraine, and it seems to me, forever. This question vanished, seemingly Armenia’s need for the CU membership. We saw it in Astana, and see it every day. Armenia is not willing here, nor expected. No matter how long the Republicans talk that the CU is a development tool for Armenia, no one expects us here.”
In fact, our interlocutor noticed an interesting change. The fact that the RPA member, even pro-European, even some opposition figures, after Serzh Sargsyan’s political decision, were engaged on praising the non-existing structure, the CU, according to him, had a negative impact on Armenia. “If earlier, we could expect for at least some advantages, demand customs duties waivers on certain products, now they dictate conditions to us, saying that if you want to enter the CU, if you need it, then install a customs checkpoint with Nagorno-Karabakh.”
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To the question of “Aravot” how long the EEU membership delay will last as RA high rank officials are constantly stating various dates, our interlocutor mentioned that the current “depending on air” situation, in which Armenia appeared is dangerous not only politically, but also economically. “In my work, I deal with a major investment companies and I can make one thing clear, they would never go close to a country, where there is uncertainty. They will more than happily go to a country, which is even a bad member of the alliance, but has a certain stability. Armenian is in uncertainty. Yes. When will the document be signed? In the fall? Next year? Or, generally we do would not enter into this Union? This causes a serious problem not only for outside investors, but also local businesses. What should these people do? In what conditions will they work? The business world should know how it should work six months later.” In addition to the economical parts, Hovhannes Igityan also considers the political part of the issue important. In the last 8 months, the geopolitical situation has been changed, the world is polarized, anti-Russian sentiments are increased, and the third phase of sanctions against Russia begins, branch sanctions, which also implies the banks.
Hovhannes Igityan believes that Russia, as a big country, can smoothly cope with the situation, especially since the majority of people does not live well. But, at the same time, he notes that the large Russian companies have also branches in Armenia, and it can bring painful consequences for Armenian counterparts of these companies. “We should not ignore the fact that the entire anti-Russian atmosphere, especially from recent events, after the crash of Malaysian “Bowing”, can also be extended to Armenia, both economically and politically. It can be very painful for Armenia’s upcoming political developments,” opines Hovhannes Igityan.
At yesterday’s Security Council session of Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in fact, made a sensational statement, saying that Russia’s sovereignty guarantee is that it is not involved in any alliance. Putin said that entering into an alliance, the states often lose a part of their sovereignty, yielding it, and very often, it happens that they yield it not in consistent with the public interest. We asked Hovhannes Igityan whether it means refusing the ideas of EEU and CU, and what fate awaits the CIS and CSTO. “Putin and his entourage will probably provide clarifications, but my first impression is that Putin does not consider the EEU, CSTO and CIS alliances, in which the RF has entered. Russia believes that it is the owner of these alliances, and the others enter into Russia. Putin speaks about sovereignty, and indeed, if we consider the large states, which are in the alliance along with Russia are less equal than RF. Russia is the dictator. I think this results in the fact that Putin does not consider that he loses sovereignty. Perhaps, being concerned about sanction applied against Russia, Putin first time told the truth, he simply recruits countries under him, where he reigns.”
Along with their Russian-loving and pro-Russian, the RA authorities first time formally voiced the risk of equipping Azerbaijan by Russia. About two weeks ago, in the interview to the Argentine Clarin newspaper, President Serzh Sargsyan expressed his public concern with regard to selling of military attacking equipment to Azerbaijan by Russia. “This is a very painful topic for us, and our people are very concerned that our strategic ally is selling weapons to Azerbaijan,” said the president of Armenia, in particular. To our question of whether this was an attempt to cut off the umbilical cord from Russia, or equipping Azerbaijan has reached dangerous sizes for us, Hovhannes Igityan said that, on the one hand, he considers it right that the president had speak out about it, especially when he is sure that so he thinks. “He definitely understands the power of weapons, and has information about the volume.” On the other hand, in a country far from our territory, Serzh Sargsyan is making a statement, which is followed by nothing. “Even Rutin’s the lowest level advisers, who usually like to talk about Armenia, were silent. May be they have not heard, or they already ignore us. It is wrong that there is no response. Then, such statements are first made not by the President, but the Foreign Ministry. They call the ambassador, express disagreement, send a note, the Ministry of Defense is making a statement on arsenal imbalance, the diplomats are talking about military imbalance at the international organizations, revolts take place, statements are voiced at the parliament by Serzh Sargsyan’s party members, only after then Serzh Sargsyan goes to see Putin and informs there are revolting and complaints in his country, and it is not good that the RF equips Azerbaijan. And now, it turns out that the authorities were not only justifying Russia for two years, in some cases, even praising, good for it, it is our partner, it makes money, and all of a sudden, Serzh Sargsyan is making a statement in Argentina. Well, then Putin would say that everyone is happy but not you. In other words, Serzh Sargsyan’s statement in Russia probably has caused only surprise, that’s why they do not respond,” says Hovhannes Igityan, adding that thus statement by the president should have followed by some steps which he does not see either.
Recently, the possibility of an early election is often talked about. To the question of whether you see a similar situation, the ANM Board member said that he does not think that the political forces would succeed to rise up people, meaning the recent social tensions. “People are unhappy, but in my opinion, they will not follow behind these political forces, because it has followed a lot, at least in 2008, with a greater number, with risks and enthusiasm, and saw nothing. The disappointment is great until now,” said our interlocutor, adding that civil movements in Armenia have greater weight, but they solve private problems rather than global. Therefore, the only force that has the chance to change the power in Armenia is Russia. “If Russia decides that it no longer needs Serzh Sargsyan, then Russia can made a change of power. Simply, now, Russia’s attention is directed toward the world and Ukraine. What will happen in the fall, I do not know? And I think, Armenia does not cause trouble to Russia even with the statement made by Serzh Sargsyan in Argentine. What Russia wanted to be here, so it was done.”
To the question of “Aravot” what Armenia’s authorities should do, to again fall into the arms of the Europe, Hovhannes Igityan said that the government members confess in informal conversations that Armenia may not be in the CU membership, and the only argument is that if a years ago Armenia would not agree, they would make Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia appear in the situation of Ukraine. “If today, this risk is missing, it’s high time for the RA authorities to present an economic resolution, so that it would be clear to everyone, including Russia, that it is beneficial for Armenia to be a member of the CU, moreover, the members of the Union are talking of China, India and Turkey, and they are not interested in Armenia.”
Hovhannes Igityan believes that clarifications should be made also in foreign policy, albeit cautiously, so that they do not “fall under the feet” of superstates, and everyone understands that being a small country, you have your own visions, and let them not try using your smallness and weakness to dictate you. “Also, with regard to NKR, I think that it is time for Armenia to have a short, specific, clear, and acceptable for NKR resolution and carry it forward. Clarity is important,” said Hovhannes Igityan, noting that there are small countries in the world that can move their principled stance forward.
Interviewer, Nelly GRIGORYAN
