On August 8-9, separate meetings of the President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev with Russian President Vladimir Putin are schedules in Sochi. “This weekend, our president’s separate meetings are scheduled in Sochi, first with the President of Armenia and then with the President of Azerbaijan, and when they both appear in the same place at the same time, perhaps it would be impossible to evade talking about Nagorno-Karabakh. But as to how it will be organized, depend on us. Of course, we will speak with the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan on how we can from our side, first by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, help building confidence and reducing the risk of collisions,” said Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.
Official Moscow, in fact, is concerned about the tension in the Contact line and was not satisfied with Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement, as in these days, calls are voiced by international organizations and various countries’ officials addressed to the sides. Under Putin’s patronage, Russia is initiating talks at the presidential level about settlement of Karabakh issue. And this is in the event when the French president’s proposal was circulated for a long time: to conduct Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting in Paris, about which the parties did not give clear answers of when they can meet or generally will meet or not. The Russian foreign minister has also noted that the efforts are made with American and French counterparts to eventually help solving some of the issues that still obstacle the approval of the document, which would state the political principles of the conflict settlement. “We would try anyway to reach these few issues to a point that the parties would define a package acceptable for them.”
Lavrov meant the adoption of the political statement, which will compose the principles, which should be used to be guided in the conflict resolution, but he also added that it is not easy to do it, many attempts have been undertaken, but something always obstacles. One of the obstacles encountered on the way to approval of the documents was, perhaps, that in recent years Ilham Aliyev’s continually “re-equipped” administration by Russia was already visioning that it can suppress the Armenian side by its “combative army”. The most remarkable support by official Moscow would be that as a peaceful and Minsk Group co-chairing country, Russia would not equip Azerbaijan like it is not done by other co-chair countries: the United States and France. But let’s go back to the question of what made Vladimir Putin to be engaged in Karabakh conflict all of a sudden, moreover now, when Russia-US tensed relations have reached the peak in the result of the Ukrainian developments, in particular, after the Malaysian plane crash.
Putin once again seeks to emphasize the role and influence of Russia over the former Soviet Union countries’ governments. Now, the message on emphasizing its power in the South Caucasus and reckoning with Russia is timely, given the tough attitude by the West to Russia. This is one side of the question. But more important is the question of what situation will come next after the talks in Sochi. Will the tension be alleviated in the Contact line, and Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev would express their gratitude to Vladimir Putin for special treatment initiated in the Karabakh conflict resolution process and the efforts made on the way of peace building, and is that all? It is possible that this very scenario will work. Still we should not rule out the possibility of another hypothesis. The Sochi meetings may result in appearance of the only “guarantee” for elimination of the tension in Contact line – necessity to deploy peacekeepers by Russia.
It is not difficult to imagine what reaction this idea would have by the international community, even by other countries in our region. However, rumors about such ambitions by Moscow are regularly circulated, and in addition, Russia’s today’s leadership has not ever considered any of responses by the international community on any matter, including this, for example, deploying Russian peacekeepers in the Karabakh Contact line. One more option is also possible that tense situation will be maintained on the border, as a result, Karabakh front may become a new site of tension between the West and Russia, which can be fraught with unpredictable consequences. With all possible hypothesis, it is a fact that just months after Putin’s objectives for Armenia to join the Eurasian plan and the decision by the Government of Armenia, the tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh-Azerbaijan border has become unprecedented. Such a situation happens first time in the twenty-first year of the ceasefire. Is this by chance…?
Emma GABRIELYAN
