The topic of “Aravot” online on the air is discussed between NA MP Alexander Arzumanyan and Director of “Modus Vivendi” Center, Ara Papyan.
Aram Abrahamyan – Did the region become more secure after the meeting of presidents in Sochi?
Alexander Arzumanyan – I do not think so. The best characterization of this meeting was given by the Director of the Institute of CIS countries, Konstantin Zatulin, who a few days ago said that Russia is considered to be the “watcher” in this region.
A. A. – We associate it with a “zone watcher”.
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Al. A. – He just meant it. It fully reflects the approach of today’s Russian political elite, this is a huge “zone”, the former Russian or the Soviet Empire, where the Tsar or the Secretary General or the president is the “watcher”. And followed by this logic, it is quite clear that it was a message to the outer world, “this is my region, and I will call and regulate.” Every country, each of the three presidents is trying to address its directions to the internal audience and the outer world, and it seems everyone was able to say its piece.
A. A. – In other words, thus, didn’t the tension lessen?
Al. A. – No, but the meeting was important in the sense that the parties again reaffirmed that the issue should be resolved through peaceful negotiations, and the tension will be substantially reduced as of the moment. I’m not saying that Azerbaijan would abandon its encroachments, but at this time it was also beneficial to Azerbaijan, and actually it got a chance to save its face. After unsuccessful military attempts, it could say to its domestic audience that since we had agreed that we should resolve the issue peacefully, at this moment I do not conquer by weapon, which I can do.
A. A. – About cause and effect. Did the situation aggravate ahead to the Sochi meeting, or it aggravated that the meeting was to be held in Sochi and not, let’s say, in Paris?
Ara Papyan – From my perspective, the main beneficiary of this meeting was Russia, because Russia was able to show the world its special role in the South Caucasus. Followed by this notion, Russia’s particular interest to aggravate the situation becomes apparent, and when we look at their media reports on how the clashes of the previous day were interpreted, obviously this provocation line was available. There are objective reasons for the escalation. Let’s not forget that more Azerbaijan buys weapons from Russia, more aggravated becomes the situation and so will continue. I agree that the tension in these days, perhaps, will go down, so to speak, it would be aggravated in an upward waveform. What was weird to us, i.e. the certain degree of tension, unfortunately, will soon become regular.
A. A. – Until when should it be escalated?
A. P. – It will be escalated unless larger-scale clashes had occurred all of a sudden. Today, I do not think it will happen, because neither Azerbaijan is ready for it nor our forces are interested. I agree that Azerbaijan need a pretext, so to speak, not to wage a war by preserving its face and honor. We observe that the Azerbaijani policy inside the country aggravated by the calls for war has reach the point that the public demands it, and it seems to them it should be easy. Unfortunately, sober voices gradually go down, and we also see these last repressions, those who say sober things are apprehended.
Prepared by ARAM ABRAHAMYAN
“Face to Face” talk show series are released by the Open Society Foundations- Armenia. The views and analyzes found in this broadcast express the opinions of the participants, and are not approved by the Open Society Foundations-Armenia, or its Board. This broadcast is made available thanks to comprehensive financial support by the Open Society Foundations-Armenia, under the mass media support program, grant No 18624.
