Recent events in the region are correlated with each other
There are no hidden conspiracies in the politics of the 21st century. There are no unknown to us “power centers.” There are no “fair” and “unfair” states. There are playing cards, and there are interests, which the states are trying to push forward through these cards. Based on this elementary assumption, it is clear that all events are correlated with each other. Including the recent events in our region. And so, on Saturday and Sunday, Vladimir Putin met with President Aliyev and Sargsyan and “semi-reconciled” them. It was important for the Russian leader to emphasize once again that his country continues playing a key role in this region, regardless of whether anyone likes it or not.
Armenia cannot give up with Russia’s patronage due to various real and “complex”, natural and “artificial” (mistakes of 20 years of foreign policy) reason. Azerbaijan cannot give up with Russia’s intermediation, primarily because of Karabakh. Its secondary task is that in the event of more or less serious military confrontation, no one will be able to ensure the security of the oil pipelines passing through Azerbaijan. Especially given the fact that Azerbaijan can become Russia’s competitor for oil and gas. Oil and gas are sources of power (wealth) on one hand, and sources of weakness, on the other hand. And not because of being stabbed in the condition of instability. Western Europe may give up with or deprived of Russian gas due to political reasons, while Ukraine may not transport the gas to Europe. It’s bad for everyone. Some European countries, if they do not find an alternative to Russian gas, will “get cold”.
And Russia, if it does not find other “clients” and other ways of transportation, it will be deprived of the significant portion of its revenues, as this state does not have any other products (which are related to the mind, technologies, and production culture) to sell. Russia’s natural ally in these matters could be Iran. “Victims of the West” has recently signed an agreement, according to which Iran will sell Russia raw oil, and on received revenues, it will buy technologies from the same country, which will help to dig new oil wells. This, of course, violates the international system of sanctions against Iran, but it probably no longer bothers Russia, as it has also fallen under the sanctions. The man entering the sea is not afraid of the rain. But Iran is as much ally to Russia so as an opponent, because it also wants to sell gas to Europeans, who would perhaps be deprived of the Russian gas.
And recently, Iran had announced that it is ready to supply its gas to Europe, and the best way for doing this is “Nabucco”, the pipeline project, which was to transport Turkmen and Azerbaijani gas to Europe through the territory of Turkey, but its construction is delayed until 2018. As said by Iranian officials, the European countries have already expressed their interest in this project. Of course, the gas can be transported by Iraq and Syria, but, well, you also know what is going on in these countries. Iranians, as I understand, do not also rule out the Armenia-Georgia-Black Sea route, but I have already said that it is a project against the interests of “Gazprom” and, therefore, Russia.
… The American political analyst famous with his pro-Turkish views, Paul Goble, recently wrote that Georgia is a tool, Armenia is a way, and Azerbaijan is a prize. If there is a grain of truth in it, then it is not good. It’s better to be a way.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
