The Sochi tripartite meeting, as they say, served its purpose. Although the earlier tension at the Contact line is gone, but shooting still did not stop becoming less intense, which could be assumed. Last night for the first time in the last one month passed almost without firing on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Random shots were heard in the direction of the Armenian positions. Consequently, it was relatively quiet on the Karabakh-Azerbaijani Contact line. The President of Russia, thus, timely acquired the reputation of a “peace-loving” leader, preserving Russia’s influence over Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Now, many people are excited and even proud that he was successful to make S. Sargsyan and Aliyev sitting around the negotiation table. Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev held a telephone conversation, during which Putin had informed Nazarbayev about the results of the Sochi meeting. Kazakhstan President’s press service reported that the parties discussed the available complexities in Nagorno-Karabakh issue and brought their positions on the issue closer. One can guess what Nursultan Nazarbayev is interested in, who a few months ago was personally reading “friendly” Aliyev’s letter in the Astana summit. In general, as it is seen, the Karabakh issue is entering into the Eurasian Partnership agenda, with firmly steps. So far, Armenia has not joined the membership of this structure, and not still profoundly weighing the possible problems expected to our country, the issue that the Eurasian trio is interested in the course of several months is the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, more precisely, the strive not to offend “friendly Aliyev”.
Meetings, contacts, negotiations, of course, are preferable to shootings, that’s for sure. In this regard, the Sochi meeting should not be considered excessive if it alleviated the tension in the Contact line. However, it would be naive to think that it is possible to establish peace through a few more meetings even under the auspice of Putin. One of the prerequisites for establishment of peace is to exclude the war-promoting “tools”, of which Russia does not give up, if we assume for a moment that Moscow is seeking to establish peace by the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The matter, of course, refers to Moscow’s policy of continuously arming Azerbaijan. The Chairperson of “Unity” club in Moscow, Smbat Karakhanyan, the ANC’s “friend”, who is considered to be a reliable “source” standing close to the Kremlin, yesterday, to share his information with the public. “There is information that the situation will further aggravate in 2015, we are expecting very serious tensions. Armenia, with its current status, will not satisfy various geopolitical centers, which is also backed by Turkey, these centers are available also in the western countries, regardless of the position and politics of Western countries, very serious aggravations will occur. The situation leads to it, and all closed and open analytical and military center come to the conclusion that we would see three and four times more tension in the future than the current one. Azerbaijan will resume the aggression, again it would voluntarily bring the Contact line closer, the information war would be resumed and the spy system against Armenia would be in use. Our rival was and is prepared very well. And all of this will bring to it. We need to be aggressively ready to give a counterblow to all of this.” Interestingly, who helps “our rival” to get prepared? If Russia could not give such an impetus to its military business with Azerbaijan, then our rival would not “be prepared” perhaps “so well”. Aren’t “our rival’s preparedness” advocators interested in this question? As for the aggravations, then, of course, they cannot be ruled out.
Moreover, the few days developments in the Contact line proved that the unpredictable rival, on the one hand, and its equipping Armenia’s ally, on the other hand, the Eurasian trio anxiety over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, all of this taken together, Armenia at large is alone in the Karabakh front. So it has been also during the Karabakh war. We have fixed the front and diplomatic victories alone, and today, we do not have allies and supporters to preserve our victories.
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Emma GABRIELYAN
