After the Sochi tripartite meeting between the Presidents of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan, Russian political and expert circles began to talk about the recent escalation in Karabakh-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Azerbaijani border were inspired by the West and were directed against Russia. Yesterday, in particular, similar opinions were voiced also in Yerevan by the Head of the Caucasus department of the CIS Institute, also a military expert, Vladimir Yevseyev, and by the expert of Central Asia and Caucasus Research Centre of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Andrey Areshyev. “The recent escalation in Karabakh were definitely beneficial for the West to weaken Russia on the background of Ukrainian developments. If this is true, then it turns out that the West is leading an immoral game, and it is not necessary to look for a black cat in a dark room,” said Vladimir Yevseyev, adding, “The calculation by the West is that Russia is engaged in Ukraine, and it could be successful in this region by weakening Russia’s position, but Russia will always defend its and its partners’ interests. This, unfortunately, is not perceived in Azerbaijan.”
In the conversation with “Aravot”, referring to Russian experts’ observations and answering the question of whether there is some truth in all of that, meaning the recent statements by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair James Warlick and the U.S. Ambassador to Armenia, and slow and mild response by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair and co-chairing countries to border incidents, the former NKR Foreign minister, Arman Melikyan said, “Russia’s ruling political and economic elite failed to become the chosen one that rules the Western world, it was not allowed to be integrated into the Euro-American system as an equal and identical component element, which will have the rights and will share the duties with its partners. The return of “Prodigal Son” did not happen, and instead, its new eviction process began.
In this context, Russian experts can view the growth of military activeness in Russia’s bordering countries as a threat against the security of Russia, but they must also remember that once something was calculated wrong in Russia, and the fruits of this wrong calculation have been ripened now, and the time for harvest has come.” Recall that the OSCE Minsk Group American co-chair first stated that the status quo in Karabakh is becoming dangerous. Later, the U.S. Ambassador to Armenia, John Heffern, has stated the new concept of official Washington on Karabakh settlement issue, and said that the White House intends to give a new impetus to the Karabakh conflict and so on. This and a number of other statements by the American side were followed by the subversive acts implemented against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan by creating unprecedented tension on the border.
To the question of “Aravot” whether we can state that the West was encouraging Azerbaijan in its provocative actions, and whether the Sochi tripartite meeting did not somehow clarified the picture, although the motivations by the West and Azerbaijan for their behavior could significantly be different, our interlocutor responded, “With the help of them (subversive activities and border tension – N.G.), Azerbaijan is trying to gain time, it seeks to postpone the necessity of choice of camp facing Azerbaijan, Aliyev is afraid of standing beside Russia, or explicitly supporting the West realizing that any decision can be disastrous for his government and the family.” Yesterday, Russian-Armenian joint drills were held in Armenia in the territory of the Russian 102nd military base, in fact, according to official report, the soldiers acted in conditions close to fighting.
Read also
To the question of “Aravot”, though such drills are not exclusive, however, what they mean in current situation, Arman Melikyan responded, “We need to be ready for war, especially the next two – three years, would be very complicated in terms of military and political developments.” After tripartite meeting of the presidents, the cases of violation of ceasefire regime by Azerbaijan have decreased by more than ten times. This is confirmed by the Armenian and Karabakh official sources. Does this mean that the meeting, however, produced some results? “First, it was necessary to escalate the situation so that it would be possible to record some results after the meeting, record a positive move,” said our interlocutor.
To the question of what possible regional developments will happen, particularly related to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, if we take into account the American co-chair James Warlick’s statement that the Karabakh conflict cannot anymore be considered frozen, the former NKR foreign minister said, “The tension will grow especially along the borders of Russia. The presence of the Russian military base in Armenia may even become a cause for political attacks, and by unfreezing the Karabakh conflict, the Americans perhaps forewarn the Russian partners about possible complications and trends threatening thereof.” Under created difficult situation, formation of Russian-Iranian or Armenian-Iranian alliances becomes more critical.
Our interlocutor, however, at least at this point does not see a prospect for Russian-Iranian strategic alliance. “Iran has a tradition of running a very pragmatic foreign policy, and prefers not to load itself with extra responsibilities, especially in its relations with major states.” As for the Armenian-Iranian relations, Arman Melikyan opines, “Armenia is a country of special significance for Iran, and in this case, much will depend on the stance of Yerevan.” As to how the Armenian-Iranian relations will develop, it would probably be outlined on September. The visit of the delegation to Iran headed by the Prime Minister of Armenia is planned on September, and the meeting of the Presidents of Iran and Armenia is planned during the year. This was also confirmed by the Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador of Iran to Armenia in the recent press conference, adding that the dates are not yet finalized.
Nelly GRIGORYAN
