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Will Erdoğan and Davutoğlu forget the Karabakh issue?

August 29,2014 18:10

Participation in Erdoğan’s inauguration ceremony at a lower level than the Foreign minister would be a more effective move

Official Yerevan is participating in the inauguration ceremony of the 12th president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, at the level of Armenia’s Foreign Minister, Edward Nalbandyan. Days ago, Serzh Sargsyan hinted at the camp of “Together-2014” Youth Educational Forum that Armenia’s foreign minister will be informed whether the president of Turkey is planning to visit the Genocide Memorial in Tsitsernakaberd location in coming April 24, the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, and “see with his own eyes the crowded march of people, which for decades is only growing towards the eternal flame.”

Probably, Armenia’s Foreign Minister will convey Serzh Sargsyan’s invitation to Erdoğan to visit Armenian next year, on April 24, and to attend the events dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the Genocide. For the first time in the history, a delegation from Armenia is attending the inauguration ceremony of the Turkish president. For the countries that are not in diplomatic relations, perhaps, this is a positive step (an interesting parallel, the U.S. will participate in Erdoğan’s inauguration in Ankara at the level of the U.S. Embassy’s advisor). But, just a few days ago, Erdoğan, during the heated days of pre-election campaign, complained against the media that they had hurt him a lot, have said worse things, even calling him Armenian. Serzh Sargsyan countered, “It would also be offensive for Armenians if it had turned out that Erdoğan is Armenian.”

But the Armenian-Turkish latest “mutual shooting” did not obstacle Serzh Sargsyan to send a congratulation message to Erdoğan on August 13, on the occasion of being elected a president of Turkey. “Assuming the office of President of the Republic of Turkey, you will indeed have the opportunity to make a personal effort to give effect to our bilateral agreements without preconditions,” says the congratulatory message. Turkey’s newly elected President may differ from his predecessor, more restrained and progressive-minded President Gül, whose presidency did not, however, bring significant changes to Armenia – Turkey relations, in spite of “football diplomacy”.

More radical views-possessing Erdoğan and Davutoğlu would hardly refuse supporting Azerbaijan on the Karabakh issue. But, the 100th anniversary of the Genocide may be an opportunity to make some moves, for example, to send an impressive delegation to Yerevan next year on April 24, which will be assessed by the entire world as a symbolic gesture made by official Ankara, which may contribute to further warming of relations between Armenia and Turkey. Prior to the 100th anniversary of the Genocide, the new Turkish government, probably, would come up with calls and statements aggressed to Armenia and the Diaspora. In other words, official Ankara will concentrate its attention on the policy of putting propaganda tricks into action. Soon, perhaps, the Turkish press, for instances, will begin discussing, fortunetelling to know, for example, whether or not Erdoğan and Davutoğlu will visit Yerevan on April 24.

Official Yerevan does not obviously omit the occasions of emphasizing its constructive sentiment against Turkey. And although the “football diplomacy” did not produce results, and more precisely, Turkey failed the opportunity of adoption of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, official Yerevan, attending Erdoğan’s inauguration at the level of Foreign Minister, once again highlights Armenia’s constructive sentiment. But whether Armenia’s authorities have at least one percent of confidence that this move will be duly appreciated by the new Turkish authorities. And this appreciation does not imply to the visit to Yerevan on the 100th anniversary of Genocide April 24, at the level of Erdoğan or Davutoğlu. The problem is more specific and in-depth, whether Ankara will refuse keeping the borders with Armenia closed because of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, which is a hostile action.

Hardly anyone today would doubt that Erdoğan and Davutoğlu could forget the Azerbaijan favorable stance of Karabakh issue. Therefore, official Yerevan makes some steps in some sense, which are mostly propagandistic. Under the Turkish government’s stance on the Karabakh issue, participation in Erdoğan’s inauguration ceremony by Armenia at a lower level than the Foreign Minister would perhaps be more reasonable and effective step to emphasize that the ball is in Turkey’s playground, and the Armenian authorities are waiting a long time for concrete steps by Ankara.

 

Emma GABRIELYAN

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